Updated 2 October 2026. Nike (NKE) closed at $35.15 on Thursday 1 October and traded at $32.09 in after-hours dealing, down 8.71 percent, after its fiscal first-quarter report (StockAnalysis quote data, 7:59 pm ET). Verdict: the quarter itself was close to expectations – revenue of $11.2 billion, earnings of $0.48 a share. The damage came from the outlook. Nike told investors full-year revenue will fall by a high-single-digit percentage and guided adjusted earnings to $1.15 – $1.35 a share, well under what analysts had pencilled in, while Greater China sales dropped 26 percent on a currency-neutral basis.
Key facts
- Revenue: $11.2 billion, down 4 percent reported and 5 percent currency-neutral, for the quarter ended 31 August 2026 (Nike 8-K, 1 October).
- Diluted EPS: $0.48, down 2 percent. Net income $712 million, down 2 percent.
- Gross margin: 42.8 percent, up 60 basis points, which Nike attributed primarily to lower warehousing and logistics costs.
- Greater China: $1.18 billion, down 22 percent reported and 26 percent currency-neutral. North America $5.13 billion, up 2 percent. EMEA $3.18 billion, down 5 percent. Asia Pacific and Latin America $1.46 billion, down 2 percent.
- NIKE Direct: $4.1 billion, down 8 percent. Wholesale $6.8 billion, down 1 percent. Converse $263 million, down 28 percent.
- Fiscal 2027 outlook: revenue to decline high-single digits; adjusted diluted EPS of $1.15 to $1.35, excluding about $0.15 of restructuring expense.
- “Pace” restructuring: about $2.5 billion of cumulative savings through fiscal 2031, for about $1.0 billion of pre-tax charges, “primarily consisting of employee-related costs”.
- Stock: $35.15 at the close, $32.09 after hours. The 52-week range before the report was $35.02 to $76.97 (StockAnalysis).
What Nike reported
On the headline numbers Nike did roughly what it said it would. Revenue of $11.2 billion was a little short of the consensus, which StockAnalysis put at $11.32 billion and BigGo Finance at $11.35 billion. Earnings of $0.48 a share came in ahead of the $0.44 forecast cited by BigGo Finance. Chief financial officer Dave Denton said in the release: “We delivered first quarter results consistent with our expectations, supported by improved gross margin and disciplined cost management.”
The mix underneath is less comfortable. North America, the largest region, grew 2 percent. Everything else shrank. Nike’s own stores and digital business fell 8 percent while wholesale slipped only 1 percent, so the recovery that exists is running through retail partners rather than Nike’s direct channel. Footwear revenue fell 6 percent to $6.95 billion, apparel rose 2 percent to $3.38 billion. Converse lost more than a quarter of its sales.
Costs moved the right way. Selling and administrative expense fell 3 percent to $3.9 billion, with operating overhead down 6 percent and marketing (“demand creation”) up 5 percent. Inventories were $7.8 billion, down 3 percent. Nike returned about $610 million to shareholders through dividends.
China: down 26 percent
Greater China revenue fell to $1.18 billion. On a currency-neutral basis that is a 26 percent decline in one year, the weakest of any region by a wide margin. GuruFocus, summarising management’s commentary, said the drop reflects a strategic shift in distribution channels. CNBC’s report put the regional decline at 26 percent, the currency-neutral figure.
China is now about 10.5 percent of Nike’s quarterly revenue ($1.18 billion of $11.2 billion). The region is small enough that North America’s 2 percent growth nearly offsets it in dollars, but large enough that a decline of this size sets the tone for the full-year guide.
The guidance is what moved the stock
Nike expects fiscal 2027 revenue to decline by a high-single-digit percentage. The first quarter was down 4 percent, so the guide implies the remaining three quarters are worse than the one just reported.
On earnings, the $1.15 to $1.35 adjusted range compares with analyst expectations of about $1.67 (StockAnalysis) to $1.69 (BigGo Finance) before the report. At the midpoint of $1.25, guidance sits roughly 25 percent below that consensus. The adjusted figure also leaves out about $0.15 a share of Pace restructuring expense.
At the after-hours price of $32.09, Nike trades at about 25.7 times the midpoint of its own adjusted guidance (our arithmetic: $32.09 divided by $1.25). The annual dividend of $1.64 a share, as listed by StockAnalysis, is higher than the top of the adjusted EPS range, which is why GuruFocus framed its coverage around dividend sustainability.
Pace: the restructuring
Nike described Pace as “an operating model transformation to accelerate and scale the success of the Sport Offense”, chief executive Elliott Hill’s turnaround plan. The release lists supply chain modernisation, a new India campus, a geographic realignment and organisational streamlining.
The numbers: about $2.5 billion of cumulative savings through fiscal 2031, against about $1.0 billion of pre-tax charges over the same period, on top of roughly $0.3 billion of severance already recognised in fiscal 2026. About $0.3 billion of the charges are expected in fiscal 2027. Nike says the charges consist primarily of employee-related costs; CNBC reported that the restructuring will result in layoffs beginning in 2027.
“The Sport Offense is driving measurable progress across our performance business, and we introduced Pace to help us accelerate and scale that momentum across NIKE,” Hill said in the release.
Nike stock scenarios: bull, base and bear
| Scenario | NKE level | What has to happen | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | ~$30 | Analysts cut estimates to the low end of guidance, China keeps falling at this rate, and the dividend comes into question. | Bank of America’s price target. Lorraine Hutchinson downgraded Nike to Underperform and cut her target to $30 from $47 on 25 September, before the report, citing a longer-than-expected turnaround (Yahoo Finance). |
| Base | $32 – $38 | The stock holds its after-hours level and trades between the post-earnings price and the nearest neutral target while the market waits for evidence on Pace savings. | $32.09 after-hours price; Piper Sandler’s $38 target (Anna Andreeva, Neutral, set ahead of earnings per Yahoo Finance). |
| Bull | ~$44 | North America growth accelerates, wholesale turns positive, and Pace savings show up in margin faster than the charges. | The $44.13 average analyst target listed by StockAnalysis on 1 October. That average was compiled before the guidance and is likely to be revised down as analysts update. |
The bear case is about 7 percent below the after-hours price and the bull case about 37 percent above it. The analyst targets used as anchors were all set before Thursday’s report, and their dates are given for that reason.
What to watch next
- Friday’s regular session. After-hours prices are thinly traded. The 2 October open and close will show whether $32 holds. A close below $35.02 is a new 52-week low.
- Target revisions. The first round of post-earnings analyst notes will reset the $44 average.
- Layoff details. Nike has given the cost of Pace, not the headcount.
- The dividend. A $1.64 annual payout against $1.15 – $1.35 of adjusted earnings is a question management will be asked again next quarter.
- Greater China in the second quarter. Whether minus 26 percent was the trough of the channel reset or the run rate.
Quick take: Nike beat on earnings and margin and still lost almost 9 percent after hours, because the full-year guide says sales get worse from here and earnings land about a quarter below what the market expected. North America and wholesale are stabilising. China, Converse and Nike’s own direct channel are not. Until Pace produces savings the market can see, the stock trades on the guidance, and the guidance does not cover the dividend.
FAQ
Why did Nike stock fall after earnings?
Nike guided fiscal 2027 revenue down by a high-single-digit percentage and adjusted EPS to $1.15 – $1.35, below the roughly $1.67 – $1.69 analysts expected. Shares fell 8.71 percent to $32.09 in after-hours trading on 1 October, according to StockAnalysis.
What were Nike’s first-quarter results?
Revenue was $11.2 billion, down 4 percent. Diluted EPS was $0.48, down 2 percent. Gross margin rose 60 basis points to 42.8 percent. The figures are from Nike’s 8-K filed on 1 October 2026 for the quarter ended 31 August.
How much did Nike’s China sales fall?
Greater China revenue was $1.18 billion, down 22 percent as reported and 26 percent on a currency-neutral basis.
What is Nike’s Pace plan?
Pace is a restructuring Nike calls an operating model transformation. It targets about $2.5 billion in cumulative savings through fiscal 2031 and carries about $1.0 billion of pre-tax charges, mostly employee-related costs.
Is Nike laying off staff?
Nike’s release says Pace charges are primarily employee-related and that it recognised about $0.3 billion of severance in fiscal 2026. CNBC reported the restructuring will result in layoffs beginning in 2027. Nike has not published a headcount figure in the release.
What is the analyst price target for Nike?
StockAnalysis listed a Hold consensus and an average target of $44.13 on 1 October, compiled before the guidance. Individual targets set in late September range from $30 (Bank of America) to $52 (Oppenheimer).
Is Nike still in the S&P 100?
No. Nike left the index on 21 September 2026. FinanceFeeds covered what the S&P 100 exit changed and why index funds had to sell.
Related coverage
- Nike drops out of the S&P 100: index funds have to sell
- Lululemon: why LULU fell 17 percent to an 8-year low
- Costco’s quarter: sales up 11.2 percent and a tariff refund in the beat
Sources: Nike, Inc. fiscal 2027 first-quarter earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1, filed with the SEC on 1 October 2026 (all reported results, outlook, Pace figures and executive quotes); StockAnalysis (closing and after-hours prices, 52-week range, consensus revenue and EPS expectations, average analyst target, dividend, 1 October 2026); CNBC (layoffs beginning in 2027, 1 October 2026); BigGo Finance (consensus EPS and revenue estimates); GuruFocus (management commentary on China, 1 October 2026); Yahoo Finance (Bank of America, Piper Sandler, Oppenheimer and Barclays target changes, 23 – 25 September 2026).
This article is for information only and is not investment advice. Share prices move continuously and the figures above were accurate at the time of writing. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider your own circumstances before investing.
