- Bitcoin’s price is trading around $81,525, up more than 5% over the past week, after recovering from last week’s lows.
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $433 million in net inflows on September 18, led by Fidelity’s FBTC and BlackRock’s IBIT.
- Galaxy’s Alex Thorn says Bitcoin’s reclaim of the 50-week MA has historically confirmed that bear-market lows are in.
Bitcoin price climbed above $81.5K on Sep. 21, extending its recovery after closing the previous week above a key long-term technical level for the first time in 45 weeks.
At the time of writing, BTC was trading around $81,525, after reaching an intraday high near $82,074. Bitcoin gained nearly 6% over the week ended Sep. 20 and is up about 29% over the past 35 days, marking a recovery from the $75,000 area seen earlier in the month.
The move comes after a strong recovery last week, when U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $433 million in net inflows on Sep. 18. Fidelity’s FBTC led the inflows with about $310.7 million, followed by BlackRock’s IBIT with roughly $108.4 million. Despite the late-week recovery, total weekly ETF inflows were only around $6.2 million after earlier outflows.
The latest move also brought Bitcoin’s price back above its 50-week moving average. BTC closed the week above the indicator for the first time in 45 weeks, a level that has historically been closely watched during major market recoveries.
Bitcoin Reclaims Key Long-Term Technical Level
Galaxy Research Head of Firmwide Research Alex Thorn has pointed to the 50-week moving average as an important level during Bitcoin’s previous bear markets. In earlier research, Thorn said that in four of the five completed bear markets, breaking back above the 50-week average confirmed that the market bottom was “in.”
Historical data also shows why the latest weekly close has drawn attention. Galaxy’s review of major Bitcoin declines since 2011 found 13 instances in which BTC moved back above the 50-week average. In 11 of those cases, Bitcoin did not go on to establish a new low.
The pattern was visible after several major downturns. Bitcoin reclaimed the average in 2012 after the 2011 crash, in 2015 following the 2014-15 bear market, in 2019 after the 2018 decline and again in 2023 following the 2022 market downturn. Those moves were followed by substantial rallies, although the indicator has also produced failed recoveries, including during the 2021-22 period.
BTC Tests Key $82K Resistance
Right now, Bitcoin’s 4-hour chart shows a bullish impulse followed by a bullish consolidation. A strong recovery from the $76,000–$77,000 area, followed by consolidation near the recent highs.
Zooming in, BTC remains above its 9-period moving average near $80,981 and 21-period moving average around $80,373, keeping the short-term structure positive.
The 4-hour RSI is also near 70, indicating momentum but leaving the market close to the traditional overbought threshold. That does not automatically signal a reversal, but it shows that momentum has become stretched after the recent advance.
And, the 50-week moving average is currently around the high-$70,000s, meaning Bitcoin remains several thousand dollars above the level after the latest weekly close. Holding above it could therefore become an important test for the recovery in the weeks ahead.
So, the immediate hurdle is around $82,000. Bitcoin has repeatedly approached this area without establishing a decisive breakout, making it an important resistance level for the current move.
On the downside, the $80,000 area is the first important support zone, while the 21-period moving average around $80,373 provides another short-term reference level.
Bitcoin’s latest recovery has come despite recent macro and regulatory uncertainty, including the Federal Reserve’s rate decision and the Senate setback for the CLARITY Act. BTC’s ability to remain above $80,000 has kept attention focused on whether the cryptocurrency can challenge the $82,000 area again.
