SpaceX (SPCX) stock slipped nearly 3% early Tuesday, extending a roughly 2% decline on Monday.
Shares were trading around $144, close to the level of their $150 debut price.
The stock has nevertheless recovered significantly over the past several weeks after falling to a record low of $104.83 on August 3.
The latest pullback comes as investors look ahead to both additional lockup releases and a potentially important Starship test later this month.
SpaceX faces billions in upcoming unlocks
Unlike a typical IPO, SpaceX did not establish a single 180-day lockup expiration.
Its prospectus instead spread insider selling eligibility across roughly a dozen dates, limiting the amount of new supply released at any one time.
The staggered structure, however, has not eliminated the pressure from potential selling.
Shares fell around 3% during the latest major release after up to 319 million Class A shares became eligible for trading, representing roughly $49 billion at recent prices.
Another 59.1 million affiliate shares became unlocked the following day.
Several additional unlocks are scheduled before the end of 2026.
On September 24, around 320 million shares are expected to become eligible for trading.
Another roughly 320 million shares are scheduled for October 9 and October 24.
The largest release is expected two full trading days after SpaceX reports third-quarter results, which are expected in late October or early November.
Up to 1.3 billion shares, or about 28% of the relevant share pool, could become sellable at that point.
December 8 marks the 180-day expiration, when the remaining non-Musk insider float becomes eligible.
By the end of 2026, roughly 4.9 billion SpaceX shares are expected to have become available for trading.
That creates a persistent overhang for investors, particularly as early shareholders gain more opportunities to take profits following SpaceX’s recovery from its August low.
Starship Flight 14 approaches
While the lockup schedule represents a supply-side risk for SPCX, Starship remains one of the company’s biggest potential long-term catalysts.
SpaceX is scheduled to launch its 14th Starship test flight on September 22 from Starbase, Texas, according to the FAA’s Current Operations Plan Advisory.
September 23 is listed as a backup date.
The launch comes after CFO Bret Johnsen said last week that Flight 14 will be the first revenue-generating flight for Starship.
The spacecraft is expected to carry production-grade Version 3 Starlink satellites into orbit, which Johnsen described as a major milestone.
Elon Musk said Monday that Flight 14 will be the final test before SpaceX attempts to catch the Starship spacecraft with its launch tower.
“We’ve got flight 14 coming up, of Starship, and this will be the last flight before we attempt to catch the ship,” Musk said at the All-In Summit in Los Angeles. “So if this flight goes well, then on flight 15 we will try to catch the ship.”
Musk also said SpaceX could later this year, or more likely early next year, attempt to refly both the Starship spacecraft and booster.
SpaceX has already demonstrated the ability to reuse its boosters, but it has yet to successfully perform a tower catch of the Starship spacecraft or fly the ship again.
Starship is central to the valuation
The upcoming tests matter because a large part of SpaceX’s long-term growth potential depends on turning Starship into a reusable, high-frequency launch system.
Pivotal Research Group analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak said earlier this month that achieving full reusability is central to whether SpaceX’s roughly $2 trillion valuation can be justified.
His $220 price target assumes Starship can achieve 20 to 50 flights per vehicle, low refurbishment costs and rapid turnaround times.
“Our $220 target is a call on reuse of 20-50 flights per vehicle, cheap refurb, fast turnaround,” Wlodarczak said. “If that is solved, the rest of the model can happen. If it is not, SPCX is a different and much smaller company.”
The potential scale is significant. SpaceX says Starship can carry more than 100 metric tons of payload, more than four times the capacity of its Falcon 9.
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