SpaceX SPCX shares fell 2.16% to $145.47 on Monday, even as the company’s Starship rocket reached orbit for the first time and deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites.
The move mirrored the broader market‘s decline.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 354 points in trading on Monday as higher oil prices and Treasury yields pressured stocks.
Starship deploys 26 Starlink V3 satellites
The uncrewed spacecraft and its Super Heavy booster launched from SpaceX’s Starbase facility in Texas on Starship’s 14th test flight.
The booster completed a controlled splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico, although some engines stopped operating during its descent.
Starship also experienced an engine issue after separating from the booster, with one of its three main engines shutting down earlier than planned.
Engineers determined the spacecraft could continue the mission, and Starship subsequently completed an engine firing that placed it into orbit.
The spacecraft then deployed 26 next-generation Starlink V3 satellites at an altitude of about 269 kilometres.
SpaceX said all 26 satellites were operating normally.
The mission was initially expected to last about 10 hours and complete six orbits of Earth.
However, SpaceX shortened the flight to roughly three hours because of the engine issue.
Why it matters for SpaceX
The successful orbital flight is significant for SpaceX as the company increasingly shifts its launch strategy towards Starship.
Unlike the Falcon 9, which is currently in commercial service, Starship is designed to be fully and rapidly reusable and capable of carrying substantially larger payloads at lower costs.
SpaceX says Starship V3 is designed to carry around 100 metric tons to orbit.
The company is winding down Falcon 9 and may not offer new Falcon 9 launches beyond 2028, although existing contracts are expected to continue.
Starship is also central to Starlink’s expansion.
The V3 satellites are designed to handle about 10 times the data of the V2 Mini satellites currently launched by Falcon 9. SpaceX eventually plans to carry as many as 60 V3 satellites on each Starship flight.
The rocket is also important to NASA’s Artemis programme, which plans to use a version of Starship for crewed lunar missions.
SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell also said at the All-In Summit this month that the company plans to launch AI compute satellites on Starship in 2027.
SpaceX reported second-quarter revenue of $7.8 billion, up 92%, with a net loss of $541 million.
The AI business, which includes xAI, generated about $2.6 billion in revenue.
Bernstein reaffirms bullish outlook on SpaceX
Bernstein has reiterated its Outperform rating and $248 price target on SpaceX, highlighting the massive growth potential of Starlink’s residential broadband business.
The firm projects Starlink could generate approximately $64 billion in revenue by 2031.
At the current share price, this target implies roughly 68% upside for investors.
Douglas Harned, a Bernstein analyst, noted that Starlink has demonstrated exceptional growth, doubling its broadband subscriber base in each of the past four years.
This trend is expected to continue, with the subscriber count projected to double again in 2026.
Bernstein’s base case scenario anticipates Starlink reaching 168 million subscribers by 2031, a forecast built upon the 2026 global broadband market size and projected population growth.
As of the end of the second quarter, SpaceX reported having about 12 million Starlink subscribers.
Financial performance and revised estimates
In the second quarter, connectivity revenue surged 66% to $4.29 billion, driven by 1.7 million net subscriber additions.
While Bernstein slightly trimmed its 2031 revenue estimate from $66 billion to $64 billion, the adjustment reflects an expected decline in average revenue per user (ARPU) as Starlink expands into lower-income markets.
The firm also updated its financial model to account for a faster near-term connectivity buildout.
Consequently, Bernstein now forecasts a fiscal 2026 diluted loss of $0.19 per share (improved from the previous $0.20 estimate) and fiscal 2027 earnings of $1.37 per share (up from $1.30).
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