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Global coffee surplus expected next season

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NEW YORK — The global coffee supply balance will shift from a deficit of 2.17 million bags in 2022/23 (Oct-Sept) to a surplus of 3.74 million bags in 2023/24 as Brazil’s output partly recovers, according to a report by consultancy HedgePoint.

It projected Brazilian 2023/24 (April-March) coffee production to be between 64.9 million bags and 68.9 million bags, compared to 59 million bags projected for 2022/23.

HedgePoint coffee analyst Natalia Gandolphi said in the report that despite a Brazilian recovery next season compared to the two previous crops, which were impacted by frosts and drought, production will still be 14% smaller than the 2020/21 record of 72.6 million bags.

Ms. Gandolphi said many coffee fields in Brazil are still recovering after pruning. The consultancy projects Brazil’s 2023/24 arabica coffee production between 44.4 million bags and 46.4 million bags, versus 36 million bags in 2022/23.

Robusta coffee output is expected to be between 20.5 and 22.5 million bags compared to 23 million bags in 2022/23.

The report said that despite a global surplus in 2023/24, the stocks-to-use ratio will improve only slightly since global inventories are expected to remain historically low, particularly during the second quarter of next year.

Only a few estimates for Brazil’s new coffee season have been released so far. Dutch bank Rabobank expects production to grow at least 8% to 68.5 million bags, while consultancy SpillingTheBeans expects between 50 million bags and 56 million bags. — Reuters

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