Updated 21 October 2026. Spot gold traded at about $4,114 an ounce on Wednesday 21 October, down 0.26 percent on the day and a fourth straight session of declines (Trading Economics, $4,113.95; Mitrade, about $4,115). Comex December futures settled at $4,122.40 on Tuesday, down 0.4 percent, after a $4,112-$4,154 range. The US 10-year yield is 5.116 percent. Verdict: gold cannot rally while Brent sits at $110 and traders price a December Fed hike. Reference levels: $4,064 below, $4,195 above.
Key facts
- Wednesday price: gold fell toward $4,100 for a fourth consecutive session. Trading Economics quoted $4,113.95, down $10.78 or 0.26 percent, and put the one-month change at minus 5.74 percent. Mitrade had spot near $4,115, at the week’s low.
- Tuesday session: spot gold ended the US session near $4,122.50, down $17.40 or 0.42 percent. The low was about $4,112 around 06:05 ET and the high about $4,154 around 10:25 ET. Comex December futures opened at $4,162.40 and settled at $4,122.40 (Guardian Gold overnight summary).
- Silver: the December contract settled at $57.98, up 1.23 percent, with spot about $57.80 (Guardian Gold). Silver is diverging from gold.
- Yields: the 10-year Treasury yield eased about 1.9 basis points to 5.116 percent on weak housing data (Mitrade, Guardian Gold). Gold did not respond to the lower yield.
- Housing: September housing starts fell 5.2 percent to 1.221 million against roughly 1.305 million expected, pending home sales fell 7.3 percent month on month and the NAHB index dropped to 29 (Mitrade).
- Fed odds: Polymarket traders gave an 86.5 percent chance that the Fed leaves rates unchanged at the 27-28 October meeting and 12.5 percent to a 25 basis point hike, at 23:13 ET on Tuesday (Polymarket Trader). CME FedWatch put the hold probability at 83.9 percent as of 20 October (Admiral Markets). Mitrade says markets assign 92-94 percent to a hike in December.
- Forecast cut: CIBC cut its fourth-quarter gold forecast to $4,500 an ounce, from $6,500 at the start of the year (Guardian Gold).
Why gold is falling while yields ease
On paper Tuesday was a good day for gold: the 10-year yield fell on soft housing data and the dollar touched a session low. Gold still closed lower, because oil was the bigger story. Brent reached $111.99 before settling at $108.79, and oil near $110 keeps headline inflation elevated enough that the market prices the Fed’s next move as a hike in December, not a cut. The October meeting itself is seen as a hold at 84-87 percent, but the message is that there is no relief coming for a non-yielding asset. We covered the same dynamic in Tuesday’s gold outlook; the only change since is that gold is $6 lower and oil bounced again overnight.
The one-month figure matters more than the daily move. Trading Economics puts gold down 5.74 percent over a month and up only 0.33 percent over a year. The 2026 rally has been fully given back, and a month of lower highs since the September Fed hike is why CIBC now sees $4,500 by year-end rather than $6,500.
The levels that matter
Mitrade’s analysis for Wednesday puts the first support at $4,104-$4,113, which is exactly where gold is trading, with the next shelf at $4,064-$4,074 and a deeper band at $4,017-$4,040. Resistance starts at $4,150-$4,159, roughly Tuesday’s intraday high, then $4,185-$4,195 and $4,215-$4,227. A fourth down day that closes below $4,104 would put the $4,064 band in play before the Fed meeting.
Silver’s strength is the one bullish signal. December silver gained 1.23 percent on a day gold lost 0.4 percent, and that kind of divergence usually means industrial and speculative demand is still present under the surface. It does not help gold’s near-term tape, but it argues against the deeper $4,017 band being tested on this move.
Gold this week: bull, base and bear
| Scenario | Gold | What has to happen | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $4,064 | Gold closes below $4,104, the EIA shows another large crude draw that keeps Brent above $110, and December hike odds stay above 90 percent. | Mitrade’s second support band, $4,064-$4,074. About 1.2 percent below Wednesday’s $4,114. |
| Base | $4,100-$4,160 | Gold holds the $4,104-$4,113 support into the 27-28 October Fed meeting, with Tuesday’s $4,154 high as the ceiling. | Mitrade support 1 and resistance 1; Tuesday’s $4,112-$4,154 range (Guardian Gold). |
| Bull | $4,195 | Confirmed Iran talks pull Brent back toward $105, the 10-year drops below 5.05 percent and December hike odds fall below 85 percent. | Mitrade’s second resistance band, $4,185-$4,195. About 2 percent above Wednesday’s price. |
The bear case sits below Wednesday’s price. These are reference levels measured from the verified Trading Economics and Mitrade quotes, not forecasts.
What to watch on Wednesday
- Oil: Brent was back at $110.38 at 03:50 GMT after Tuesday’s dip (Reuters). See today’s Brent outlook.
- EIA inventories: a draw in line with the API’s 4.9 million barrels keeps the oil-inflation link intact.
- Fed pricing: the October hold is near-certain; the December hike odds are what gold trades.
- $4,104: a close below it opens the $4,064 band.
Quick take: gold is at $4,114, down four sessions and 5.7 percent in a month, sitting on Mitrade’s $4,104-$4,113 support. Lower yields did not help on Tuesday because $110 oil keeps a December Fed hike priced above 90 percent. Expect $4,100-$4,160 into the Fed. A break of $4,104 opens $4,064. Oil below $105 opens $4,195.
FAQ
What is the gold price today?
Spot gold traded at about $4,114 an ounce on Wednesday 21 October 2026, down 0.26 percent (Trading Economics). December futures settled at $4,122.40 on Tuesday (Guardian Gold).
Why is gold falling?
Oil near $110 keeps inflation expectations high, and markets price a 92-94 percent chance of a Fed rate hike in December (Mitrade). Higher rates raise the cost of holding a non-yielding asset. Gold is down 5.74 percent over the past month.
Will the Fed raise rates on 28 October?
Probably not. Polymarket priced an 86.5 percent chance of no change and 12.5 percent for a 25 basis point hike late on Tuesday; CME FedWatch had the hold at 83.9 percent as of 20 October. The December meeting is where a hike is expected.
What are the key gold levels this week?
Mitrade puts support at $4,104-$4,113, then $4,064-$4,074 and $4,017-$4,040. Resistance is $4,150-$4,159, then $4,185-$4,195 and $4,215-$4,227.
Why is silver rising while gold falls?
December silver settled up 1.23 percent at $57.98 on Tuesday while gold fell 0.4 percent (Guardian Gold). Silver has more industrial demand and tends to hold up better when the selling in gold is rate-driven rather than growth-driven.
What do banks forecast for gold?
CIBC cut its fourth-quarter 2026 forecast to $4,500 an ounce from $6,500 at the start of the year (Guardian Gold). The World Gold Council and Boston Consulting Group separately estimate tokenized gold could unlock up to $700 billion of new demand over time, from about $4 billion today (Mitrade).
Sources: Trading Economics (Wednesday spot price and monthly change, 21 October 2026); Mitrade gold analysis (support and resistance, 10-year yield, housing data, Fed probabilities, WGC estimate, 21 October); Guardian Gold overnight summary (Tuesday range, futures settlements, silver, CIBC forecast, 21 October); Polymarket Trader (Fed odds at 23:13 ET, 20 October); Admiral Markets (CME FedWatch, 20 October); Reuters (Brent price, 21 October).
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Precious metals prices are volatile. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.
