Updated 27 October 2026. Spot gold fell 0.3 percent to $4,003.59 an ounce on Tuesday, with December US futures down 0.5 percent at $4,016.10, as the dollar held near a two-week high on the first day of the Fed’s meeting (Reuters, 27 October). Earlier in Asia spot traded at $4,010.39 at 00:53 GMT (Investing.com). Verdict: gold is pinned just above Friday’s three-month low of $3,975.23 and is trading the Fed, not the Gulf. Traders price about 11 percent odds of a hike on Wednesday and about 82 percent for December, and September PCE lands on Thursday. Silver, platinum and palladium fell harder than gold on Tuesday. Reference levels: $3,890 below, $4,110 above.
Key facts
- Price: spot gold $4,003.59, down 0.3 percent, and December US gold futures $4,016.10, down 0.5 percent, on Tuesday 27 October (Reuters). Spot was $4,010.39 at 00:53 GMT (Investing.com) and about $4,010 at 9:18 am IST (Goodreturns).
- The low: on Friday 23 October spot gold fell below $4,000 for the first time since mid-July and touched a session low of $3,975.23; it lost 4 percent on the week, the steepest weekly decline since June (Reuters, via CNBC and MarketScreener).
- Monday: gold rose 0.4 percent to $4,009.87 at 03:42 GMT as Brent slipped, a bounce driven by lower oil rather than haven demand (Reuters, via Business Recorder). It has not built on it.
- Other metals on Tuesday: spot silver $53.06, down 1.6 percent; platinum $1,506.94, down 1.3 percent; palladium $1,030.75, down 1.8 percent (Reuters).
- Fed odds: about 11 percent for a hike at this week’s meeting and about 82 percent for December (Reuters, 27 October). Goodreturns, citing CME FedWatch, also had December at about 82 percent, up from about 75 percent on Monday.
- The calendar: the FOMC meets on 27-28 October with the decision on Wednesday and Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference after it (FXStreet). September PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, and third-quarter GDP follow on Thursday 29 October.
- Oil: Brent was at $114.68 on Tuesday morning, down for a second session after Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani officials met Iran’s leadership in Tehran (HDFC Sky). Lower oil eases the inflation pressure that is driving the hike bets.
Why gold cannot get off the floor
Gold’s problem this week is simple: a non-yielding asset facing a market that expects the Fed to raise rates in December. The odds rose to about 82 percent from about 75 percent at the start of the week, and the dollar is near a two-week high. Monday’s bounce came only because Brent fell; on Tuesday Brent fell again and gold still slipped, which says the rates side is now the heavier weight. The selling in silver, platinum and palladium, each down more than 1 percent, points to the same pressure across the metals complex. Monday’s page set out the oil-relief case; one session later it has run out.
Analysts disagree on the floor. Andrey Shvedov of SMAS Quantum Research favours longs on confirmed absorption in the $3,995-$4,015 zone but expects a final move down to $3,940 before a relief rebound towards $4,075-$4,110. Muhammad Umair of Gold Predictors sees $3,950 as the next support if gold closes below $4,000 and stays there. FXStreet’s Sagar Dua points to the June low at $3,960-$3,940 and Societe Generale’s projection near $3,830 if the three-week consolidation breaks down (FXStreet, 23 October). The desk’s piece on gold and the dollar before the Fed covers the currency side.
What Wednesday and Thursday decide
A hold on Wednesday is priced. The trade is in Warsh’s December language. A statement that keeps December open would let the 82 percent hike odds drift and give gold a run at the $4,075-$4,110 zone. A statement that signals December, followed by a hot PCE number on Thursday, puts the $3,940-$3,960 support band under test and opens $3,890. The oil channel runs in parallel: our Brent page tracks the Tehran talks, and a concrete de-escalation step would cut inflation expectations faster than any Fed statement.
Gold this week: bull, base and bear
| Scenario | Gold | What has to happen | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $3,890 | Warsh signals December, Thursday’s PCE runs hot and the dollar extends its rise; Friday’s $3,975 low breaks. | About 2.8 percent below Tuesday’s $4,003.59, under the $3,940-$3,960 June-low support band; Societe Generale’s $3,830 is the next level. |
| Base | $3,940-$4,075 | Gold holds near $4,000 into Wednesday and trades the Fed and PCE without breaking either way. | Shvedov’s $3,940 demand base to the bottom of his relief-rebound zone. |
| Bull | $4,110 | The Fed keeps December open, PCE comes in soft and the Tehran talks take more of the oil premium out. | The top of Shvedov’s $4,075-$4,110 rebound zone, about 2.7 percent above Tuesday’s price. |
The bear case sits below Tuesday’s price. These are reference levels measured from the verified quotes, not forecasts.
What to watch this week
- The dollar: near a two-week high on Tuesday; a further rise caps any bounce.
- Wednesday 28 October, 2 pm EDT: the Fed decision, then Warsh’s press conference.
- Thursday 29 October, 8:30 am EDT: September PCE and third-quarter GDP.
- Oil: any follow-up to Monday’s Tehran meeting, and Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia.
- $3,975: Friday’s three-month low; a daily close under it would confirm the breakdown.
Quick take: Gold is near $4,004 on Tuesday, just above Friday’s three-month low of $3,975, as the Fed meeting opens with December hike odds at about 82 percent and the dollar near a two-week high. Lower oil is no longer enough to lift it. Expect $3,940-$4,075 into Wednesday. A Fed that keeps December open and a soft PCE open $4,110; a December signal and a hot PCE open $3,890.
FAQ
What is the gold price today?
Spot gold was $4,003.59 an ounce on Tuesday 27 October 2026, down 0.3 percent; December US futures were $4,016.10 (Reuters).
Why is gold falling?
Traders expect the Fed to raise rates in December, with odds at about 82 percent, and the dollar is near a two-week high. Higher rates make non-yielding gold less attractive.
What is gold’s three-month low?
Spot gold touched $3,975.23 on Friday 23 October, its first move below $4,000 since mid-July (Reuters).
When is the Fed decision?
The FOMC meets on 27-28 October and announces its decision on Wednesday 28 October, followed by Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference.
What is the silver price today?
Spot silver was $53.06 an ounce on Tuesday, down 1.6 percent (Reuters).
What could push gold back above $4,100?
A Fed that leaves December open, a soft September PCE print on Thursday and further easing in oil. Analyst Andrey Shvedov sees a relief rebound towards $4,075-$4,110.
Sources: Reuters (Tuesday spot, futures and other metals, Fed odds, dollar, 27 October 2026; Friday low and weekly loss, 23 October, via CNBC and MarketScreener; Monday move, via Business Recorder, 26 October); Investing.com (00:53 GMT spot, 27 October); Goodreturns (9:18 am IST spot, CME FedWatch, 27 October); FXStreet (FOMC timing, 27 October; analyst levels from Andrey Shvedov, Muhammad Umair and Sagar Dua citing Societe Generale, 23 October); HDFC Sky (Brent, Tehran talks, 27 October).
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Commodity prices are volatile. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.
