Updated 14 October 2026. Spot gold traded near $4,155 an ounce on Wednesday 14 October ahead of US September CPI, with FX Leaders quoting about $4,161 and Markets.com about $4,153. That is down from $4,206 on Monday, its strongest level since 2 October. Verdict: gold is stuck between a 25-basis-point hike that markets see as very likely by December and support from central-bank buying. Today’s core CPI reading decides which way it breaks. Reference levels: $4,000 below, $4,320 above.
Key facts
- Spot, 14 October: about $4,161 (FX Leaders) and about $4,153 (Markets.com), both quoted ahead of the 8:30 a.m. ET CPI release.
- Recent move: spot gold rose 0.3 percent to $4,206.01 on 12 October, its strongest since 2 October, and December futures reached $4,230.40 (Discovery Alert, 12 October). It has since given back about $50.
- Record high: $5,597.23 on 29 January 2026 (Forbes Advisor). Gold is roughly 25 percent below that peak after the Iran conflict lifted oil and inflation expectations and markets priced out rate cuts.
- Fed: the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00 percent on 16 September. CME FedWatch on 13 October priced under a 20 percent chance of another hike at the 27-28 October meeting and more than 85 percent by December (Fortune).
- CPI consensus: economists polled by Dow Jones expect September headline CPI of 0.6 percent month on month and 3.6 percent year on year, up from 3.4 percent in August. Core is expected at 0.2 percent month on month and 2.5 percent year on year.
- Fed speakers: New York Fed President John Williams and Boston Fed President Susan Collins have both left the door open to another hike this year (FX Leaders).
Why core CPI matters more than the headline
Headline inflation is set to jump because record September petrol prices are feeding through. The Fed has already shown it will look at core rather than react to energy. That makes the 0.2 percent month-on-month core consensus the number that matters for gold today.
The reasoning is simple. Gold pays no yield, so its price moves against real interest rates and the dollar. A core reading of 0.3 percent or higher would revive talk of an October hike, push Treasury yields and the dollar up, and take gold back towards support. A core reading of 0.2 percent or lower would leave the Fed on its December path, which the market has largely priced already, and give gold room to retest Monday’s high. The Cleveland Fed’s nowcast put core at 0.20 percent month on month and 2.39 percent year on year (via Admiral Markets), in line with consensus.
Oil links the two stories. Brent is back above $106 after a Houthi missile hit an Aramco building in Dhahran overnight (see our Brent crude analysis for CPI day). Higher oil feeds inflation expectations and hike bets, which has been negative for gold for most of 2026, even though gold usually benefits from geopolitical risk.
The technical map
FX Leaders analyst Arslan Ali Butt is neutral to slightly bullish while gold holds above $4,148. The levels he identifies are the ones traders will watch after the print:
- Resistance: $4,168, then $4,216, which he calls the breakout trigger, then $4,272 and $4,318.
- Support: $4,148, then a rising trendline near $4,114, then $4,068.
Below $4,068 there is little support until the $4,000 round number. The late-September low, covered in our seven-week-low analysis, came near $4,125.
Gold price: bull, base and bear
| Scenario | Gold | What has to happen | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $4,000 | Core CPI comes in at 0.3 percent or more, October hike odds jump and the dollar extends its rally, breaking the $4,114 trendline and $4,068 support. | The round number below FX Leaders’ last support at $4,068, about 4 percent below spot. |
| Base | $4,110-$4,220 | Core comes in at the 0.2 percent consensus, the December hike stays priced and gold trades the range of the past two weeks. | The $4,114 trendline and the $4,216 breakout level (FX Leaders). |
| Bull | $4,320 | Core comes in below consensus, December hike odds fall from above 85 percent, and gold clears $4,216. | FX Leaders’ upper resistance at $4,318, about 4 percent above spot. |
The bear case sits below today’s spot near $4,155. Even the bull case leaves gold more than 20 percent below January’s record. Recovering that ground needs the Fed to stop hiking, not just a soft CPI print.
What to watch
- 8:30 a.m. ET today: September CPI. Watch core month on month, where 0.3 percent or more is the bearish trigger for gold.
- CME FedWatch after the print: whether October hike odds rise from under 20 percent.
- 15 October: US producer prices.
- Oil and the Gulf: a sustained Brent rally lifts inflation expectations, which works against gold.
- 27-28 October: the next Fed decision.
For the background on how hike pricing has driven gold this month, see our earlier look at gold and the Fed’s October hike odds and the gold price prediction from 12 October.
Quick take: Gold near $4,155 is waiting on core CPI. A December hike is already more than 85 percent priced, so an in-line 0.2 percent core reading should keep gold in a $4,110-$4,220 range. A 0.3 percent reading revives October hike bets and points to $4,000. A soft reading and a break above $4,216 opens $4,320. Gold is still about 25 percent below its January record, and higher oil keeps working against it through hike expectations.
FAQ
What is the gold price today?
Spot gold traded near $4,155 an ounce on Wednesday 14 October 2026 before US CPI, with FX Leaders quoting about $4,161 and Markets.com about $4,153.
When is the September CPI report released?
Wednesday 14 October 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET (13:30 London). Economists polled by Dow Jones expect headline inflation of 3.6 percent year on year and core of 0.2 percent month on month.
How does CPI affect gold?
Hotter inflation raises the odds of Fed rate hikes, which lifts yields and the dollar and usually weighs on gold. Softer inflation does the opposite. Today the core month-on-month reading matters most, because the Fed is looking through higher energy prices.
Will the Fed raise rates again?
CME FedWatch on 13 October priced under a 20 percent chance of a hike at the 27-28 October meeting and more than 85 percent by December, according to Fortune. The Fed last hiked on 16 September, to 3.75-4.00 percent.
Could gold fall to $4,000?
Yes, if core CPI runs hot and October hike odds jump. Our bear case is $4,000, below FX Leaders’ last support level of $4,068.
How far is gold from its record high?
Gold hit a record $5,597.23 on 29 January 2026, according to Forbes Advisor. At about $4,155, it is roughly 25 percent below that peak.
Sources: FX Leaders (gold price, technical levels, Fed speakers, 14 October 2026); Markets.com (gold price, 14 October); Discovery Alert (12 October prices and CME FedWatch odds); Fortune (CME FedWatch odds, 13 October); Forbes Advisor (record high); Dow Jones economist poll (CPI consensus); Cleveland Fed nowcast via Admiral Markets (core CPI estimate, FOMC date); Federal Reserve (16 September decision).
This article is for information only and is not investment advice. Commodity prices move continuously and the figures above were accurate at the time of writing. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument. Do your own research and consider your own circumstances before trading.
