Equal-weight S&P 500 ETF closed at $214.09, down…

The equal-weight S&P 500 did not make a record on Friday. The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF, ticker RSP, closed at $214.09 on 16 October 2026, down $0.91, or 0.42 percent, from Thursday’s $215.00. That print is $8.68, or 3.90 percent, under the highest close in the Nasdaq file saved here, $222.77 on 14 August 2026. FactSet’s figure the same afternoon was 84 percent of reporting companies beating earnings estimates, not a round 85 percent, and only 9 percent of the index is in the sample.

The miss is the word record. Phil Rosen wrote that equal weight hit a record low versus the cap-weighted index on 7 October, not a price high. The beat rate is the wrong gauge: the surprise is 2.6 percent, under a 7.5 percent five-year average, and FactSet cut blended growth to 29.0 percent from 29.4 percent. About 45 companies are in that sample. They did not put RSP through August. The closes used here are Friday’s official prints.

What just happened, and why the obvious reading is wrong

The obvious reading is that the average stock made a high while chips broke, and that an 85 percent profit-beat rate explains the split. Friday’s equal-weight ETF did the opposite of a high. It opened at $215.59, traded to $216.295, and closed at $214.09. The intraday high was still $6.48 under the 14 August close. Thursday’s $215.00, the best close of this week, was 3.49 percent under that August print.

The week and the day are different clocks. From the 9 October close of $213.04, RSP rose 0.49 percent. SPY fell from $778.57 to $763.25, or 1.97 percent. QQQ fell from $751.27 to $709.80, or 5.52 percent. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF, SMH, fell from $603.33 to $539.79, or 10.53 percent. Chips did the damage. Equal weight was up on the week and down 0.42 percent on Friday. Elena’s Capex Cat review on 17 October put the index down 2.0 percent on the week and equal weight up 0.5 percent. Her 1.0 percent median stock is a different universe, not an RSP record.

The 85 percent figure does not survive the primary note. FactSet posted at 18:52 UTC on 16 October that 84 percent of S&P 500 companies have beaten third-quarter EPS estimates, above 78 percent and 77 percent. Butters’s linked note uses the same 84 percent and adds that 9 percent of the index has reported. Nine percent of 500 is 45 companies. That is the sample.

Nor did the year-to-date race flip on Friday, and it did not flip by a new high. On 16 September, RSP’s price return from the 31 December 2025 close of $191.56 was 10.82 percent, and SPY’s return from $681.92 was 10.58 percent, so equal weight still led on these ETFs. On 17 September SPY led, 11.83 percent to 11.35 percent. Opening Bell Daily says equal weight last held the lead on 16 September, and that through 7 October the cap-weighted index was up 14.0 percent against 9.9 percent for equal weight. The files print 13.98 percent and 9.94 percent that day, a 4.04 point gap. By Friday the same sums are 11.93 percent and 11.76 percent, a gap of 0.17 point. The chip week nearly erased the mega-cap lead. It did not set an equal-weight high.

Who is exposed

RSP holders own what Nasdaq calls the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF. The product’s point is the constituent list, not a weight that scales with market value, so a chip crash moves it less than a cap-weighted book. Friday was the illustration: SMH fell 3.41 percent, QQQ fell 2.50 percent, SPY fell 1.11 percent, and RSP fell 0.42 percent. The customer is the allocator who asked for the average stock.

SPY holders, in the State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, hold the other side. Rosen wrote that technology is nearly 40 percent of the S&P 500, so a handful of names can beat the average stock. This week ran that backward: SMH’s 10.53 percent drop pulled SPY down 1.97 percent while RSP rose 0.49 percent. SPY’s highest close since 15 December 2025 is $779.09 on 6 October. Friday’s $763.25 is 2.03 percent under it. QQQ is the Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1.

AMD closed Friday at $528.75, down 5.95 percent, with all 30 Philadelphia Semiconductor Index names lower and that index at 11,137.29, down 3.83 percent. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 26,140.03, down 2.14 percent on the day and about 4.5 percent on the week. Tesla closed at $354.72, down 2.13 percent, and Netflix at $70.53, down 2.86 percent. Those tapes are not an RSP high. Butters counts 79 S&P 500 companies reporting next week. Treating 84 percent as a finished season means treating about 45 firms as the index. Health Care is the only sector he shows in an earnings decline.

What the tape actually shows

Every row is a Nasdaq close saved for this piece. Year-to-date uses 31 December 2025, $191.56 for RSP and $681.92 for SPY. QQQ and SMH in this download start 1 September 2026, so they have no year-to-date column. The chart is the equal-weight ETF, not an index level.

Friday’s RSP move is ($214.09 minus $215.00) divided by $215.00, or minus 0.423 percent, which the quote page prints as minus 0.42 percent. The week is ($214.09 minus $213.04) divided by $213.04, or 0.49 percent. The gap to 14 August is ($214.09 minus $222.77) divided by $222.77, or minus 3.90 percent. Matching that close from here takes $222.77 divided by $214.09, minus 1, or 4.05 percent. The year-to-date gap, SPY minus RSP, shrank from 4.04 points on 7 October to 0.17 point on Friday.

The ratio is the other tape. RSP at $203.66 over SPY at $748.17 on 14 May was 0.2722. On 6 October, $212.33 over $779.09 was 0.2725. On 7 October, $210.60 over $777.22 was 0.2710. On Friday, $214.09 over $763.25 was 0.2805. Opening Bell Daily says 0.2710 is the weakest RSP/SPY reading since at least 2003, about 31 percent under a 0.394 peak in April 2015. The 2026 closes match the May, 6 October, and 7 October ratios, and they put Friday above that low. The relative record was a low on 7 October. It was not a price high on 16 October.

Nasdaq’s RSP info endpoint shows the same last sale, $214.09, and the same minus $0.91, but it stamps the last trade “Oct 15, 2026.” The historical table has 15 October at $215.00 and 16 October at $214.09. The change matches those two rows. The session in this piece is the dated historical close, not the widget’s stamp. Volume on the historical row is 10,003,780.

What Butters and Rosen actually said

Butters did not call a blowout. In the 16 October note he wrote: “At this early stage, the third quarter earnings season for the S&P 500 has seen a mixed start relative to expectations.” He then wrote: “While the percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting positive earnings surprises is above recent averages, the magnitude of earnings surprises is below recent averages.” The page says the note is not investment advice. FactSet published a scorecard. It did not say the average stock was at a high, and it did not say 85 percent.

Of the companies in, 84 percent beat EPS estimates, by 2.6 percent in aggregate against five-year and ten-year averages of 7.5 percent and 8.0 percent. Revenue beats were 67 percent, below 70 percent and 68 percent, by 1.1 percent against 1.8 percent and 1.6 percent. Blended earnings growth is 29.0 percent, down from 29.4 percent a week earlier and from 29.2 percent on 30 September. Revenue growth rose to 12.6 percent from 12.2 percent at quarter end. Earnings estimates were cut while revenue estimates were raised. Financials growth stayed at 3.0 percent.

Rosen’s record is a ratio. On the page dated 8 October, which carries a line through the 15 October close, he wrote: “On October 7, 2026, the equal-weight S&P 500 hit a record low relative to the cap-weighted S&P 500, based on RSP and SPY data back to 2003, meaning the average stock is badly lagging mega-caps.” The page identifies him as co-founder and CEO of Opening Bell Media and chief market strategist for Silvia Inc. He also wrote that, as of 15 October, the equal-weight ETF was about 3.5 percent below its 52-week high, while SPY was within 1 percent of its own. Thursday’s $215.00 is 3.49 percent under $222.77. Friday widened that to 3.90 percent. His 3.5 percent was Thursday’s distance.

The 15 October staff chart says that from 16 September through 7 October, Nvidia rose 11 percent, Microsoft 8 percent, and Meta 7 percent, while the equal-weight fund slipped 0.8 percent. The fund leg is in the file: $212.28 to $210.60 is minus 0.79 percent. This desk did not re-download those three stocks. The names are Opening Bell Daily’s. Invesco’s product page returned HTTP 406, so there is no fresh sponsor comment beside the exchange history.

The earnings math is the macro tension

A beat rate above the five-year average sounds like a reason for the average stock to reprice up. The note refuses that. The surprise is small, the sample is about 45 companies, and blended growth fell while the hit rate sat at 84 percent because Health Care revisions outweighed the week. Since 30 September those revisions were the largest drag, partly offset by Energy and by positive surprises in Information Technology.

Ten of eleven sectors are growing earnings on his page, five in double digits, led by Energy, Information Technology, Communication Services, and Materials. Health Care is the only decline. If 29.0 percent holds for the full quarter, he wrote, it would be the third straight quarter above 25 percent. That line is about all 500 names, not the 45 already in. Revenue growth of 12.6 percent would be a third straight double-digit quarter on the same condition.

The multiple did not expand. The forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio is 19.0, below the five-year average of 19.8 and the ten-year average of 19.1, and unchanged from 30 September. Fourth-quarter growth is called at 28.6 percent and calendar 2026 at 32.8 percent. Those calls can move when 79 companies report. They are not Friday’s price. An unchanged multiple and a 3.90 percent gap to the August close do not turn an 84 percent hit rate into a record.

The median stock, through Thursday only, is harsher than the fund: up 5.7 percent in 2026, with 185 of 499 names down and only 191 ahead of SPY. The simple average was 14.6 percent, pulled up by winners. RSP reweights the laggards. Up 11.76 percent year to date, it is not that median, and it is not a new high.

What happens next

The next dated test is the week Butters already counted. Seventy-nine S&P 500 companies report in the week of 19 October. The prior note moved blended growth from 29.4 percent to 29.0 percent with only 9 percent of the index reporting actual results. Adding 79 reports will restate the 84 percent hit rate and the 2.6 percent surprise. The prediction for the 23 October scorecard is that 29.0 percent will not be left standing, because the sample changes, and that a hit rate still above 78 percent will not by itself mean RSP has cleared $222.77. The chain is the one in the note: revisions and the size of the surprise moved growth, not the share of firms that merely beat.

The price test is arithmetic. RSP needs a 4.05 percent rise from $214.09 to match $222.77. The earnings fact in hand is a 2.6 percent surprise on about 45 companies, against a five-year surprise of 7.5 percent. That is not a 4 percent move in a 500-stock equal-weight fund. Unless the coming beats are closer to 7.5 percent than to 2.6 percent, the 16 October scorecard does not supply a reason for a new RSP high by the 23 October close. A rally can still happen. It would need a different cause.

The third watch is the 0.17 point year-to-date gap. Friday’s channel was SMH down 3.41 percent, SPY down 1.11 percent, and RSP down 0.42 percent. If SMH does not rebound by 23 October, another week like that can erase 0.17 point without a new RSP high. If SMH instead pulls SPY back toward the 6 October close of $779.09, the cap-weighted lead reopens, and the 7 October ratio of 0.2710 stays the mark that mattered. Neither path is an 84 percent beat rate dressed up as a record.

This is not financial advice.

Frequently asked questions

Did the average stock make a record?

No. The equal-weight S&P 500 ETF closed Friday at $214.09, down 0.42 percent, which is not the high in the Nasdaq file used here. That high is $222.77 on 14 August 2026, and Friday is 3.90 percent under it. The intraday high of $216.295 did not clear August either. Chip funds fell harder than RSP on the day and on the week. A smaller loss is not a closing high.

Does the 84 percent beat rate explain the equal-weight tape?

No. FactSet’s 84 percent, posted 16 October, is the share of reporters beating EPS estimates, and only 9 percent of the index has reported. The aggregate surprise is 2.6 percent, below the five-year average of 7.5 percent, and blended growth was cut to 29.0 percent from 29.4 percent. The hit rate did not stop that cut, and it did not lift RSP through the August close. The rate and the price are different facts.

Was the equal-weight ETF up on Friday or only on the week?

Down on Friday, up on the week. The close of $214.09 was 0.42 percent under Thursday’s $215.00, after a high at $216.295. From the 9 October close of $213.04 the fund rose 0.49 percent, while SPY fell 1.97 percent and SMH fell 10.53 percent. A 0.49 percent weekly gain is not the $222.77 close from 14 August, which is still the top of the saved file.

What is the RSP to SPY ratio, and did Friday set that low?

No. RSP divided by SPY was 0.2710 on 7 October, below 0.2722 on 14 May and 0.2725 on 6 October. Friday’s ratio was 0.2805, because SPY fell more than RSP over the week. Opening Bell Daily calls 0.2710 a low since at least 2003, about 31 percent under the 2015 peak. That is a relative low, not a price record, and Friday did not take it.

Did equal weight win 2026, or only narrow the gap?

It narrowed the gap. From the 31 December 2025 closes, SPY was up 13.98 percent on 7 October and RSP 9.94 percent. On Friday those figures were 11.93 percent and 11.76 percent, so SPY still leads, by 0.17 point. Equal weight last led these ETFs on 16 September and trailed from 17 September. A smaller deficit after a chip week is not a new high in RSP.

What should a desk watch in the week of 19 October?

Watch the size of the surprises, not only the hit rate, and whether SMH keeps leading SPY down. FactSet has 79 companies reporting. The next scorecard should restate 84 percent, the 2.6 percent surprise, and 29.0 percent blended growth. A beat rate that stays above 78 percent would repeat Friday’s lesson. It is not evidence RSP has cleared $222.77. The 23 October close is the price check.