Brent’s November Contract Expired at $103.50.…

Anyone who watched the Brent crude price on Tuesday saw $103.50 and anyone who looked again on Wednesday evening saw $98.03, and almost none of that $5.47 was oil getting cheaper. The November contract expired on 30 September and December took over as the front month, so the quote on most screens changed contract rather than direction.

Both contracts actually rose that day. November settled 0.9% higher at $103.50 and December 1.9% higher at $98.03, which is a market going up while the headline number fell by five dollars. The December contract has since added another $1.87 to trade near $99.90 on Thursday morning, so the Brent crude price is already most of the way back to where November left off, down just 3.5% on the expired November settle.

November Settled at $103.50 and December at $98.03, a $5.47 Gap

Brent futures are a chain of monthly contracts, and the Brent crude price on a screen is whichever one expires soonest. When November stopped trading on 30 September, December inherited the quote, and because December was already $5.47 cheaper, the published number dropped without a single barrel changing hands at a lower price.

That gap is the market paying up for oil it can have now. Supply through Hormuz is still constrained, so barrels in the next few weeks carry a premium over barrels in the next few months, and the Brent crude price curve slopes down the whole way out. The level itself is not new either, since the Brent crude price was $98.55 on 22 September when Hormuz reopening hopes last pulled it under $100.

Investor Takeaway

The Curve Prices Brent at $81.14 by December 2027

The roll gap is the near end of a much longer slope. December 2026 trades at $99.90, January 2027 at $96.43, June 2027 at $87.02 and December 2027 at $81.14, which is $18.76 or almost 19% below the front month. Traders are pricing the Hormuz disruption as a condition that eases rather than a permanent repricing of crude, and the shape of the Brent crude price curve is the clearest statement of that view available.

Goldman Sachs is more or less where the back of the curve sits, with a base case of Brent moderating to $85 by year-end and $80 through 2027. The curve disagrees on timing rather than destination, because it has $85 arriving around August 2027 instead of December 2026. Anyone trading the Brent crude price off a year-end forecast is betting on the front of the curve collapsing faster than the market currently allows.

Goldman Puts Gulf Exports at 23.3 Million Barrels a Day, JPMorgan at 17.5 Million

Goldman estimates Gulf oil exports have recovered to 23.3 million barrels a day including dark flows, roughly matching the 2025 average, with crude at 19 million barrels a day, or 108% of that average, supplying about 90% of September’s rebound. Refined products are the laggard at around half of 2025 levels. JPMorgan tracks Middle East crude at 17.5 million barrels a day, or 98% of pre-war volumes, and puts Hormuz transit near 13 million.

Saudi Arabia is the swing factor. Loadings have resumed at Yanbu after the 1,200-kilometer East-West pipeline was knocked offline by drone strikes on 10 and 11 September, and the line has recovered roughly half its throughput. Goldman says Saudi exports more than doubled in September and now exceed the 2025 average, the single clearest reason the Brent crude price gave up 2.6% on Tuesday before rebounding.

Brent Crude Price Is Back Near $99.90 With Iran Talks Stalled

President Trump denied reports he was prepared to ease sanctions on Iran in exchange for nuclear concessions, which removed the diplomatic discount traders had started to build in and lifted the Brent crude price on Wednesday and again on Thursday. Talks have stalled repeatedly since Oman postponed the GCC-Iran meeting on Hormuz shipping in mid-September. China halting fuel exports added to the bid, with the Brent crude price trading a $96.55 to $100.83 range on Thursday against 187,500 lots of volume.

The Brent crude price is up 2.46% over five days, 10.78% over a month and 39.72% so far in 2026, and FinanceFeeds’ $120 bull against $95 bear and its Kharg Island scenario work frame the range around those headlines. The next roll comes at the end of October, and the same $5-handle confusion will arrive with it unless the curve flattens first.

Investor Takeaway