Updated 7 November 2026, 09:30 GMT. Oil markets are shut for the weekend. Brent crude futures settled at $98.32 a barrel on Friday 6 November, up 3 cents on the day, and US West Texas Intermediate gained 31 cents to $90.83 (CNBC). Brent lost more than 16 percent over the week and WTI nearly 13 percent, as markets bet that the end of the US midterm elections opens the way to a US-Iran deal. Iran still reported three more tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday. Verdict: the war premium has been cut hard, but no deal exists yet, and Tuesday’s US CPI report plus OPEC’s monthly report on Wednesday frame the week. Reference levels: $93 below, $105 above.
Key facts
- Friday settle: Brent $98.32, up 3 cents; WTI $90.83, up 31 cents (CNBC, 6 November).
- The week: Brent fell more than 16 percent and WTI nearly 13 percent (CNBC). January Brent closed the previous Friday at $117.64 (Dmarketforces), and Business Recorder reported it as the steepest weekly fall since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020.
- The low: Wednesday’s 9.73 percent crash took January Brent to a $93.52 settlement (our Thursday Brent page); HDFC Sky put the weekly low at $93.22 on Thursday.
- Diplomacy: Iran reportedly sent a nuclear proposal to Washington through Qatar, according to Reuters, citing a senior Iranian official (via CNBC). IranWire reported that Tehran wants an end to the US naval blockade, sanctions relief and unfrozen assets before any full deal.
- Hormuz: Iran reported three more attacks on oil tankers on Thursday, and attacks on vessels continued at a near-record rate (CNBC).
- Jobs: the US added 165,000 jobs in October against about 65,000 expected, lifting December Fed hike odds to roughly 77-80 percent (Scotsman Guide; MLQ). Our desk covered it in US Economy Adds 165,000 Jobs as December Fed Rate Hike Odds Rise.
Why Brent fell 16 percent this week
The sell-off started after Democrats won both chambers of Congress on 3 November. Markets read the result as more pressure on Washington to end the war with Iran, and on Wednesday Brent dropped 9.73 percent in a single session. Thursday and Friday brought a partial rebound to around $100, as covered on our Friday Brent page, but Brent ended Friday just under that level.
The physical picture has changed less than the price. Flows through the Strait of Hormuz are running at less than 60 percent of capacity, according to a Reuters-sourced analysis cited by IranWire, and the tanker attacks have not stopped. Bob McNally, founder and president of Rapidan Energy Group, told CNBC he sees an 80 percent probability that fighting resumes and that both benchmarks could climb above $100. CNBC reported that Lombard Odier’s Samy Chaar and Luca Bindelli share that view.
The other side is the Iranian proposal sent through Qatar. Tehran’s conditions are wide, and no formal agreement has been announced, but even talk of talks was enough to remove about $19 from the price in a week.
The week ahead
Three scheduled events matter. The US October CPI report is due on Tuesday 10 November at 8:30 a.m. ET (Bureau of Labor Statistics), on the same day the US Energy Information Administration is listed to publish its Short-Term Energy Outlook. OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report is listed for Wednesday 11 November (LiteFinance calendar). In its October outlook, the EIA raised its fourth-quarter 2026 Brent forecast to $105 a barrel, $14 higher than a month earlier (EIA; Devdiscourse), so any cut to that figure will show how much of the war premium the agency now sees as lasting.
OPEC+ holds its next full ministerial meeting on 29 November, according to an OPEC press release, so the group has three weeks to see where talks land before it sets supply policy. A stronger dollar after the jobs report is a small headwind for oil, as it makes crude more expensive for non-US buyers; the same move pushed gold lower on Friday, as covered on our gold week-ahead page.
Brent this week: bull, base and bear
| Scenario | Brent | What has to happen | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $93 | The Qatar channel produces a framework both sides accept, or tanker attacks stop. | This week’s low: $93.52 settlement on Wednesday, $93.22 intraday on Thursday (HDFC Sky); about 5.4 percent below $98.32. |
| Base | $95-$101 | Talks continue without a breakthrough and attacks continue at the current rate. | The range Brent traded in from Thursday to Friday, around the $100 level. |
| Bull | $105 | Talks break down and fighting resumes, as Rapidan’s McNally expects. | The EIA’s October forecast for the fourth-quarter Brent average; about 6.8 percent above $98.32. |
The bear case sits below Friday’s settlement. These are reference levels measured from the verified settle, not forecasts.
What to watch this week
- Iran: any response from Washington to the proposal sent through Qatar.
- Hormuz: the pace of tanker attacks and whether flows recover from below 60 percent of capacity.
- Tuesday 10 November: US October CPI at 13:30 GMT and the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook.
- Wednesday 11 November: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.
- 29 November: OPEC+ ministerial meeting.
Quick take: Brent settled at $98.32 on Friday after losing more than 16 percent this week on hopes of a US-Iran deal. No deal exists yet and tanker attacks continue, so the war premium can return quickly. Expect $95-$101 while talks drag on; $93 needs a real framework, $105 needs a breakdown.
FAQ
What is the Brent crude oil price today?
Oil markets are closed on Saturday. Brent futures settled at $98.32 a barrel on Friday 6 November, up 3 cents, and WTI settled at $90.83 (CNBC). Trading resumes on Sunday evening.
Why did oil prices fall this week?
Markets bet that the end of the US midterm elections, which Democrats won in both chambers, would push Washington towards a deal with Iran. Iran also reportedly sent a nuclear proposal through Qatar. Brent fell 9.73 percent on Wednesday alone.
How much did Brent fall this week?
More than 16 percent, according to CNBC. January Brent closed the previous Friday at $117.64 (Dmarketforces) and settled at $98.32 on 6 November.
Is there a US-Iran deal?
No formal agreement has been announced. Iran’s reported conditions include an end to the US naval blockade, sanctions relief and the release of frozen assets (IranWire).
Could oil go back above $100?
Some analysts think so. Rapidan Energy Group’s Bob McNally told CNBC he sees an 80 percent probability of fighting resuming and both benchmarks climbing above $100.
What are the key oil dates this week?
US October CPI and the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook on Tuesday 10 November, and OPEC’s monthly report on Wednesday 11 November. The OPEC+ ministerial meeting is on 29 November.
Sources: CNBC, 6 November (Brent and WTI settlements, weekly moves, tanker attacks, Qatar proposal via Reuters, Rapidan and Lombard Odier comments); Dmarketforces (previous Friday’s close); Business Recorder via Investify (weekly comparison); HDFC Sky (weekly low); IranWire, citing Reuters (Iranian conditions, Hormuz flows); EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook and Devdiscourse (fourth-quarter Brent forecast); OPEC press release (29 November ministerial); Scotsman Guide and MLQ (payrolls, FedWatch odds); Bureau of Labor Statistics schedule (CPI date); LiteFinance economic calendar (EIA and OPEC report dates).
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Commodity prices are volatile. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.
