The timing is interesting. SpaceX debuted at $135 in June, hit an all-time high of $225.64 on June 16, and has spent most of the months since trading well below that peak.

Also read: AT&T CEO holds firm stance on Elon Musk’s SpaceX phone strategy

Morgan Stanley says Wall Street is missing SpaceX’s AI swarm

Jonas reiterated his Overweight rating and $300 price target on Oct. 14. He said SpaceX’s Distributed Inference Cloud has “the greatest growth potential and is being largely ignored by investors,” and argued the topic is close to breaking out in investor conversations.

He also flagged the corporate, regulatory, and social pushback that is making traditional data centers harder to build, according to Investing.com.

The idea is to link AI agents and robots so they can share computing power across data centers on the ground and nodes in orbit. Jonas expects distributed AI and “physical AI swarms” to become a major investment theme over the next year, though the original note itself was not available for review.

Morgan Stanley thinks the market is barely paying for this. With the stock near $159 earlier this month, the bank estimated that about $127 per share came from the launch and Starlink businesses, leaving only about $32 per share for AI.

Pricing is where Jonas sees the upside. Consensus assumes SpaceX charges about $17.60 per watt for its computing capacity, yet its recent short-term contracts have reportedly been priced at $30 to $50 per watt. Every extra $10 per watt could add more than $40 billion in revenue, TheStreet reported.

SpaceX is quickly becoming an AI company

The numbers are already shifting. In the second quarter, SpaceX reported $7.81 billion in revenue, with about $2.56 billion coming from AI and $4.29 billion from connectivity, which includes Starlink. AI revenue grew roughly 247% from a year earlier, driven mainly by new infrastructure contracts.

Elon Musk has been clear about where he wants the company to go. At an August all-hands meeting, he called AI an “extremely important part of SpaceX’s future” and predicted that “AI revenue will exceed all other SpaceX revenue probably in September,” according to 24/7 Wall St.

Goldman Sachs, which raised its price target to $230 from $220 in October, has also grown more bullish on SpaceX’s AI capacity and revenue prospects, 24/7 Wall St reported.

That build-out takes serious money. SpaceX is reportedly seeking $40 billion in new financing, through bank loans and investment-grade debt, to buy more Nvidia hardware.

Jim Cramer said on Oct. 7 that SpaceX “could end up being Nvidia’s largest client at this pace.” He also cited reports that SpaceX rents spare computing power to Anthropic and Google, according to TheStreet.

The AI push has deep roots. Earlier this year, SpaceX bought xAI, which the company says built the world’s first gigawatt-scale AI training cluster. SpaceX’s June IPO then raised $75 billion at a valuation of roughly $1.7 trillion, the largest public offering on record.

The SpaceX skeptics have a case

Not everyone is sold. DZ Bank analyst Markus Leistner started coverage with a Sell rating and a $100 price target, warning of “crash risk in the valuation orbit.”

He pointed to the $15.83 billion SpaceX spent on AI computing infrastructure in the second quarter alone. SpaceX still lost $541 million in that quarter, even as revenue jumped, 24/7 Wall St noted.

The valuation is another sticking point. One analyst put SpaceX at roughly 60 to 70 times its annualized second-quarter revenue. The Federal Communications Commission has also only accepted the company’s orbital data center application for filing, which starts a review but does not authorize deployment.

Astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell has questioned the plan over cooling and space debris, 24/7 Wall St confirmed.

More SpaceX:

• Goldman Sachs revamps SpaceX stock estimates before crucial earnings test
• Musk called Anthropic ‘evil’; SpaceX’s deal with it nearly doubled
• Morgan Stanley doubles down on SpaceX stock verdict for investors

Even Jonas has a bear case. If AI momentum slows, Starship hits a serious testing wall, or SpaceX needs a large equity raise, he said the stock “could slide toward $100 within 12 months.” Higher computing costs and delays in connecting data centers to power are also on his risk list.

Share supply is another overhang. Further lockup releases are set to free up more stock, including about 28% of locked shares after the third-quarter report, while Musk’s own stake remains locked until June 2027. Short interest reached roughly 31% of the float in early July, according to 24/7 Wall St.

What SPCX investors should watch next

Starship is the near-term swing factor. Flight 15 is expected in late October or early November, with the third-quarter earnings due around the same time. Jonas said a successful Starship catch “could be the biggest positive catalyst for the stock since its IPO.”

Starlink’s mobile ambitions are drawing attention, too. Pivotal Research raised its price target to $230, citing SpaceX’s $8 billion deal for Grain Management’s nationwide 800 MHz spectrum. This still needs approval from the Federal Communications Commission and the authorization of 15,000 direct-to-device satellites. TD Cowen also reiterated its Buy rating.

Even fans are trimming. Cathie Wood’s ARK sold roughly $8.5 million of SpaceX stock on Oct. 6, according to The Motley Fool. Though ARK built the position over the summer, the move looks more like portfolio rotation than a bearish call.

For now, Jonas is betting the swarm story wins out over the skeptics.

Related: Elon Musk makes an audacious claim on the growth of SpaceX

SpaceX SPCX shares fell on Wednesday as a broader sell-off across US equities weighed on the space technology and artificial intelligence company, overshadowing the successful launch of its latest NASA resupply mission.

The stock was down over 2% at $153.22 at approximately 1:15 PM ET, extending losses after declining 4.21% in the previous session.

The weakness came despite SpaceX successfully launching the NASA SpaceX CRS-35 resupply mission on Tuesday. The launch created a glowing, jellyfish-shaped cloud that was visible across parts of the US Eastern Seaboard but failed to provide a boost to the stock.

Why is SpaceX stock falling?

SpaceX has not been immune to the macroeconomic uncertainty weighing on equities, with stronger-than-expected US inflation data adding to pressure on the market.

Around 1 p.m. ET, the S&P 500 was down more than 1%, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite had fallen over 1.6%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was also lower, declining 0.36%.

The sell-off followed the release of September’s consumer price index (CPI), which showed that inflation remained elevated.

The CPI rose 0.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis from August to September, while the annual inflation rate accelerated to 3.7%. Economists had expected annual inflation of 3.6%.

The stronger reading intensified concerns that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates higher for longer or raise them again as early as October.

Treasury yields moved higher following the report. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose around seven basis points to 5.29%, while the 30-year yield climbed to 5.6%.

Rising bond yields can weigh on equities by making fixed-income investments more attractive and increasing borrowing costs. These pressures have added to the challenges facing technology companies as investors reassess valuations and the cost of financing expansion.

Successful launch fails to support shares

SpaceX’s latest decline follows a strong rally earlier in October, when the stock gained more than 7% in each of two sessions, on October 2 and October 5.

The consecutive advances pushed shares above $150 and then $170, with the stock reaching as high as $176.42.

After that sharp rise, Tuesday’s successful CRS-35 launch may have offered limited new impetus for the stock. One possible explanation is that routine operational achievements were already reflected in investor expectations following the recent rally.

The broader weakness in artificial intelligence-related stocks over the past two sessions has also added pressure, as investors reassess the sector amid rising yields and concerns over the cost of funding AI infrastructure.

Upcoming New York City hearing in focus

SpaceX is also due to testify before the New York City Council’s Committee on Technology on Friday, October 16, 2026, at 10 AM ET.

The agreement to testify follows an escalating legal dispute after the company ignored a subpoena concerning artificial intelligence safety risks.

The hearing adds another development for investors to monitor as SpaceX navigates scrutiny of its AI activities alongside the broader market pressures affecting its shares.

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Affirm’s stock fell more than 11.5% on Wednesday to its lowest level since October 1, leaving it down 25% from its high for the year. The selloff extended after strong US inflation data pushed bond yields higher.

Affirm stock drops after US inflation report

Top companies in the buy now, pay later (BNPL) industry slipped substantially after the US published the latest consumer inflation report, which boosted bond yields. 

The report showed that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose from 3.4% in August to 3.7% in September. Core inflation also jumped to 2.6%, higher than what analysts were expecting. US bond yields continued rising, with the ten-year rising to 5.2%, while the five-year rose to 5.0%. 

Klarna, another top BNPL company, dropped by 2.80%, while Sezzle fell by over 6.30%. Block, which owns AfterPay, dropped by over 2.50%.

These stocks fell as the US inflation report weighed on sentiment. A hot inflation reading has a mixed impact on companies in the buy now, pay later (BNPL) industry. On the positive side, it pushes consumers to use BNPL more to manage their cash flow. It also lifts transaction values, as rising prices boost gross merchandise volume (GMV).

On the negative side, higher inflation leads to higher default and funding rates. The funding aspect is important because Affirm relies on different financing arrangements, including warehouse facilities, securitizations, and loan sales. When interest rates rise, the cost of financing rises.

Affirm’s growth is continuing

The most recent results showed that Affirm’s business continued doing well in the second quarter as demand for its products rose. Its gross merchandise volume (GMV) rose by 36% to $14.1 billion, while its revenue soared by 33% to $1.2 billion. 

Other metrics were also strong, with its active customers rising by 21% to 27.8 million, and its active merchants hitting 571,000. Most importantly, the company’s delinquency rate has remained quite stable in the past few months. 

The 30+ day delinquency rate remained at 2.8% in the last fiscal year. Its 60+ and 90+ day delinquency rates moved to 1.6% and 0.7%, respectively. 

Analysts expect its last quarter’s revenue rose by 30% to $1.2 billion, while its earnings per share move from 61 cents to 86 cents.

Affirm stock technical analysis

AFRM stock chart | Source: TradingView

The daily chart shows that the AFRM stock has slumped from a high of $90 in August to the current $70. It has slumped below the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level. 

The stock has now moved below the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). It also slipped below the Ichimoku cloud indicator. 

Therefore, the stock will likely continue falling in the near term. If this happens, the next level to watch will be at the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level of $60.

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The Hang Seng Index dropped by 1.50% on Thursday as it continued to underperform the broader market. This weakness was driven by Lenovo Group, whose stock tumbled by double digits amid the ongoing jitters in the artificial intelligence industry. It dropped to $23,955, down by 15% from its highest point this year. 

Lenovo Group stock pushes Hong Kong stocks lower

The Hang Seng Index dropped as Lenovo Group dropped by over 13%. It fell to $26.22, down by over 30% from its highest point this year, and is trading at its lowest level since August 7 this year. 

Lenovo’s crash coincided with the performance of its American peers like Dell Technologies and HP Enterprise. Dell dropped by over 10% to $507 after hitting the important resistance level of $600 earlier this month. HP Enterprise tumbled to $61.46 from this month’s high of $73.48.

These stocks dropped after Gartner delivered a big warning on the ongoing AI infrastructure build. In a report, the company estimated that, while AI infrastructure build will continue, there is a risk that some of the top companies will need to announce large writedowns. 

The report argued that neocloud companies like Nebius, CoreWeave, and IREN will be among the most affected.

To a large extent, at least for now, companies like Lenovo Group and Dell will not be affected. Instead, they will continue to receive substantial demand from their top clients like neoclouds and hyperscalers. 

Hua Long Grace Semiconductor, another top company in the AI industry in China, dropped by 8.73%. Weichai Power fell by 7.3%, while CMOC Group, Aluminium Corporation, Contemporary Amperex, and China Hongqiao fell by over 6%. 

The Hang Seng Index’s retreat was offset by the modest gains by companies like BeOne Medicines, Xiaomi Corporation, Hansoh Pharmaceuticals, and Budweiser Brewing. All these stocks jumped by over 1%. 

Hong Kong stocks reacted to the US inflation data

The Hang Seng Index is also falling because of the latest US consumer inflation report. In a statement on Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said that the headline and core inflation rose 3.7% and 2.6% last month. These numbers moved further away from the Federal Reserve’s target of 2.0%.

The metrics mean that the Federal Reserve will likely maintain a hawkish tone in the coming meetings. Hong Kong’s monetary authority always does what the Fed is doing because of the Hong Kong dollar peg.

Hang Seng Index technical analysis

Hang Seng Index chart | Source: TradingView

The daily chart shows that the Hang Seng Index has slipped sharply in the past few months. It dropped from a high of $28,045 earlier this year to the current $23,955. 

The index formed a death cross pattern on September 14. This pattern happens when the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) drops below the 200-day average. It has remained below the Supertrend indicator. 

Therefore, the index will likely continue falling, potentially to the key support level of $22,545, its lowest level on June 26.

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CoreWeave stock is getting pummeled as investors remain concerned about the neocloud industry. It dropped to $65 in the extended session, down by 53% from its highest level this year, erasing billions of dollars in value. With its bond yields soaring, there is a risk that the sell-off may continue.

CoreWeave is facing major headwinds

CoreWeave, a former Bitcoin mining company, has become one of the biggest players in the neocloud industry. It has achieved a revenue backlog of over $104 billion and scooped the biggest companies in the space as clients. 

This growth, however, is coming at a cost as the total debt has jumped has jumped to nearly $30 billion. Its outstanding shares have also continued rising in the past few months, a sign that investors are being diluted.

The stock is now dropping for several reasons. First, in a recent report, Gartner said that neocloud companies and hyperscalers will continue their spending spree in the next few years. However, the report also warned that neocloud companies will be the most affected by the potential large writedowns that will happen in 2030.

The main issue is that CoreWeave is spending billions of dollars buying GPUs and servers to fund the AI boom. In terms of depreciation, CoreWeave and other similar companies believe that the useful life will be about 6 years. After that, they intend to sell these GPUs at a good price.

Some analysts believe that these companies are being highly optimistic about this. Michael Burry notes that the useful life is about two to three years as the current version of GPUs will be overtaken by newer advanced ones. Just this week, Microsoft unveiled Azure Maia 300, which it believes is more capable than Nvidia’s.

CoreWeave is already announcing large depreciation. It recently announced depreciation and amortization of over $1.3 billion, a significant amount considering that its total revenue was $2.57 billion.

These fears have led to a surge in CoreWeave’s bond yields. Its bonds that are maturing in 2032 are now yielding at 14.30%, up sharply from the year-to-date low of 9.4%. These yields are a sign that investors are seeking a higher premium to hold its debt. This means that the company will now need to spend more money on its debt. In the last earnings report, the company said that its interest expense rose to $640 million.

CoreWeave stock price analysis

CRWV stock chart | Source: TradingView

The daily chart shows that the CRWV stock has slipped in the past few months. This sell-off intensified this week as investors reacted to the rising risks. It has now slipped below the important support level of $78.17, its lowest level on September 17 this year.

CoreWeave has dropped below the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), a sign that bears have prevailed. Therefore, the path of the least resistance for the stock is downwards, with the next target being at $50. A move above the resistance level of $75 will invalidate the bearish outlook.

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Rocket Lab stock price tumbled below a key support level as investors reacted to the new developments about Neutron, its next generation vehicle. RKLB dropped to $54.54, its lowest level since December 2025. It has dropped by 65% from its highest point this year, erasing billions of dollars in value.

Rocket Lab delays Neutron launch date

RKLB stock has remained under substantial pressure this month and its sell-off accelerated on Wednesday after the company announced that it was delaying its Neutron launch.

The company now expects to delay its launch to some time in 2027. It did not reveal the month, and instead suggested that the delay was necessary to ensure safety. This is a big issue for the company as the company is banking on Neutron to grow its sales. According to Bloomberg, the company identified a new issue with how the propellant tanks are manufactured. 

Neutron is its reusable medium-lift rocket capable of deploying payloads weighing 13,000 kilograms, much higher than what Electron carries. Once it goes to service, Neutron will compete with SpaceX’s Falcon 9 and Blue Origin’s New Glenn. 

This is not the first time that Neutron has been delayed. It has been delayed since 2024, leading to substantial losses for the company. These losses will likely continue in the foreseeable future because of the new delay. 

Rocket Lab’s stock is also falling as competition in the industry intensifies. SpaceX has continued to maintain a big market share, especially in NASA’s contracts. Blue Origin recently raised cash at a $140 billion valuation as it seeks to become more competitive in the launch industry.

READ MORE: Rocket Lab shares rise on contract with Synspective: why Citi sees a 50% upside

Rocket Lab’s business is doing well

Aside from the new Neutron issues, there are signs that Rocket Lab’s business is doing well. The most recent results showed that its revenue and backlog continued rising in the second quarter. 

Its revenue rose by 62% in the second quarter to $234 million, with most of them coming from its space systems. The rest of the revenue came from its launch business. 

The company’s backlog jumped to over $2.2 billon, with 60% of them being commercial clients and the other ones being government. This is important because it shows that there is strong demand for its solutions.

Analysts expect the upcoming results to show that its revenue jumped by 65% to $257 million. The most optimistic analyst expect the revenue to jump to $265 million. For the year, analysts expect its revenue to jump by 60% to $960 million.

Rocket Lab stock technical analysis

RKLB stock chart | Source: TradingView

The daily chart shows that the RKLB stock has been under intense pressure in the past few months. It has now dropped below the important support level of $59.18, its lowest level in July and September this year. Moving below this level is a sign that bears have finally prevailed. 

The stock has slumped below the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). It remains below the Supertrend indicator. Therefore, the path of the least resistance is downwards, with the next key target to watch being at $50.

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