- Bitcoin price is currently holding at the $64.8K mark.
- Past bear markets project a potential BTC cycle low near $38K–$39K.
The largest and dominant asset, Bitcoin (BTC), is currently trading at $64,878, ranging between a daily low of $64,361 and a high of $65,507. Besides, with $26.90 billion in trading volume. NYDIG has flagged that Bitcoin’s current 2025–2026 drawdown is starting to look a lot like the bear market corrections of 2014, 2018, and 2022, all four-year cycle lows that hit hard before the next leg up.
Also, BTC is already down nearly 50% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000. In addition, if this cycle follows the depth and duration of previous bear markets, NYDIG puts the potential cycle low near the $38,000–$39,000 mark later this year. That would likely be another 40% drop from current levels.
At $64K, the momentum is flat. Moreover, until the buyers show up with real force at these levels, the path of least resistance remains down. As per the recent trading pattern, the Bitcoin momentum is attempting a recovery.
If it succeeds, it could immediately test the near-term resistance level at $64,973. Upon climbing higher, the pressure on the upside strengthens, and it might initiate the golden cross to take place. Gradually, the bulls would drive the asset’s price toward a high above the $65.1K range.
On the other hand, assuming the Bitcoin momentum shifts downward, the bears gain traction, and the price could instantly slip to the key support zone at around $64,706. The death cross could emerge with the intense bearish correction, with the price retracing toward $64.5K or even lower.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Can it Rebound and Confirm a Trend Reversal?
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line crossing and holding above the signal line indicates that the short-term buying pressure is aggressively speeding up. As both lines are floating above the zero midline, it’s evident that the dominant, long-term trend is firmly positive.
Also, this BTC setup signals a fully confirmed bull market, with a strong buy-and-hold signal. The upward move has a powerful structural backing, and an immediate trend reversal is highly unlikely.
Furthermore, Bitcoin’s daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is found at 58.92, suggesting moderate bullish momentum. The value being above the 50-midline shows buyers are driving the immediate trend.
This level hints that the asset is not yet overbought, and the momentum has enough breathing room ahead before hitting a cooling-off zone. The price has solid underlying strength to continue climbing without an immediate threat of momentum fatigue.
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