BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes has predicted Bitcoin (BTC) to find support in the range of $30,000 to $35,000.
In a recent blog post, the crypto billionaire said he has purchased a Bitcoin put option with a strike price of $35,000, which expires on March 29.
He noted that Bitcoin appears to be “heavy” and anticipates a drop below the $40,000 mark.
He attributed this potential decline to the upcoming announcement by the U.S. Treasury regarding Treasury auctions and the issuance of new debt at the end of the month.
“I think Bitcoin will find a local bottom between $30,000 and $35,000,” he wrote.
“As the SPX and NDX dump due to a mini financial crisis in March, Bitcoin will rise as it will front-run the eventual conversion of rate cuts and money printing talk on behalf of the Fed into the action of pressing that Brrrr button.”
Arthur Hayes Believes Janet Yellen to Impact Bitcoin Price
Hayes also raised the question of whether Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen would have any impact on Bitcoin’s trajectory.
The crypto boss further observed that Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 (SPX) has diminished on the downside.
He suggested that the forthcoming event at the end of January might have a bearish effect on Bitcoin, considering the preference of both Bitcoin and the S&P 500 for increased liquidity.
Hayes pointed to the U.S. Treasury’s refunding announcement on January 31 as the next significant indicator.
Previously, Hayes had mentioned that the conclusion of the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) on March 12 could lead to a sharp correction in Bitcoin and other risk assets.
However, he also speculated that such a market correction might prompt the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy, potentially aiding Bitcoin’s recovery.
Hayes outlined a scenario where the market turmoil bankrupts a few banks, compelling the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and resume the BTFP.
He predicted that Bitcoin would initially experience a significant decline alongside the broader financial markets but would rebound before the Federal Reserve meeting.
Bitcoin’s Resilience Comes From its Status as Neutral Reserve Currency
According to Hayes, Bitcoin’s resilience stems from its status as a neutral reserve hard currency that operates independently of the banking system and is traded globally.
The BitMEX founder asserted that Bitcoin recognizes the Federal Reserve’s tendency to inject liquidity when faced with adverse circumstances.
While the specific terminology used by the Federal Reserve may change, Hayes believes that Bitcoin understands that printed money, regardless of its guise, remains printed money.
Consequently, he expects Bitcoin to rise significantly in anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s eventual decision to restart the money printing process.
In November last year, Hayes said he believed that Bitcoin would outperform bonds during times of war, despite a potential initial sell-off.
At the time, he discussed his observations regarding the net of RRP (Reverse Repo) and TGA (Treasury General Account) as indicators of dollar liquidity in the markets.
Based on these factors, he said he would adjust his pace of T-bill sales and Bitcoin purchases.
“But I will stay nimble and flexible. The best-laid plans of mice and men have a tendency to falter.”
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