The AI trade has already survived one serious test this year.

Semiconductor stocks plunged in June and July as investors questioned whether extraordinary valuations, leverage and enormous infrastructure spending could be justified by future returns.

Just weeks later, the sector has rebounded, with Micron reaching a trillion-dollar valuation and Nvidia heading into another closely watched earnings report.

So has the market moved past the bubble fears, or has the next phase simply become harder to navigate?

That was the focus of the latest episode of Zero Sum, where Invezz’s Lead News Editor Harsh Vardhan spoke with David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation, about the semiconductor rebound, Nvidia’s looming earnings, SpaceX’s volatile debut and the risks building underneath the AI boom.

The semiconductor sell-off was a reality check, not necessarily a reversal

Morrison attributed the summer sell-off to several factors arriving at once.

Semiconductor stocks had surged sharply earlier in the year as investors broadened the AI trade beyond Nvidia into companies including Micron, AMD, Marvell Technology and SK Hynix.

That rally eventually became difficult to sustain.

Morrison pointed to excessive gains, leverage and growing questions over when AI infrastructure spending would translate into meaningful returns.

Concerns also emerged around the increasingly complex financing relationships between companies in the AI ecosystem.

The turning point came when earnings from major hyperscalers showed that the spending was already producing real business growth.

Amazon and Microsoft, Morrison said, demonstrated that revenues from cloud computing were beginning to catch up with the enormous sums being invested in infrastructure.

“They could actually see revenues coming off the spend.”

That helped restore confidence and sparked a sharp rebound across chip stocks.

Micron offers a real-world test of AI demand

The strongest evidence that AI demand is not purely a promise may be coming from the companies supplying the infrastructure.

Micron (MU) has reportedly secured sales of its high-bandwidth memory capacity well into the future, with contracts covering production before the chips are even made.

Morrison sees that as evidence that investors are no longer simply betting on hypothetical AI demand.

“It’s evidence we’re not just betting on growth and future growth.” But he also offered an important caveat.

Semiconductor technology evolves rapidly, meaning investors still need to understand exactly what products are being contracted and whether today’s hardware remains competitive as newer generations emerge.

That uncertainty matters because AI infrastructure can be built on an enormous scale, but technology can change before the economics of that investment have fully played out.

The circular financing debate around AI has not gone away

If the AI trade has a major unresolved risk, it may be the increasingly interconnected flow of capital between its biggest players.

Morrison acknowledged that the growing number of private placements and investments between AI-linked companies can create the impression that businesses are effectively supporting one another’s valuations.

“It does look like there’s a lot of, you know, backscratching going on.”

Yet he also offered the bullish interpretation: companies putting substantial capital into the same ecosystem are demonstrating that management teams remain deeply committed to the AI opportunity.

That leaves investors with a difficult question. Are these transactions genuine strategic investments that strengthen the ecosystem, or are companies increasingly helping reinforce each other’s valuations?

The answer may become clearer as the industry moves from aggressive investment toward the point where those investments are expected to generate returns.

SpaceX shows how quickly sentiment can overpower a strong growth story

The post-IPO performance of SpaceX provided another example of the volatility surrounding the broader technology trade.

After pricing its IPO at $135, the stock surged to roughly $230 before falling below $105.

Morrison argued that the decline was partly shaped by the market’s anticipation of lockup expirations following the company’s Q2 earnings, which allowed early private investors to finally sell their shares.

Because investors knew that a large volume of stock could eventually reach the market, the price had time to adjust before those shares became freely available.

The subsequent rebound highlights another feature of the current market: strong sentiment can coexist with significant supply and valuation risks.

The AI boom may still have room to run

The scale of AI infrastructure spending is now large enough that even the world’s biggest technology companies cannot simply fund everything from excess cash.

Morrison noted that some hyperscalers have turned increasingly to bond markets and, in some cases, equity issuance to finance their expansion.

That marks a significant change from the earlier phase of the technology cycle, when the largest companies generated more than enough cash to fund investment while also returning money to shareholders.

For investors already sitting on large gains, Morrison’s message was therefore less about predicting the exact top and more about controlling downside risk.

He also suggested that investors with substantial paper gains should consider stops rather than assuming a stock will eventually return to a previous high after a major decline.

Most importantly, he cautioned against leverage. “These things are volatile enough as they are,” Morrison said.

Leveraged ETFs and other products can magnify losses, while daily resets can make their performance particularly difficult to understand over longer periods.

“Just don’t use leverage.”

The AI story may still be in its early stages. But as spending, valuations and financing structures grow, so does the cost of being wrong.

The episode concludes with Morrison’s market outlook: he remains constructive on gold and particularly silver, is bearish on oil because of slowing demand growth and alternative supply routes, and sees a potential rebound in the US dollar as his wildcard.

Watch the full episode of Zero Sum for the complete discussion and subscribe for more conversations on markets, money and geopolitics.

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Marvell stock price has pulled back from its weekly highs as investors adjusted to the recent deal with Google on custom chips. MRVL dropped to $235, a few points below this week’s high of $252. It remains in a local bear market after dropping by nearly 30% from its highest point this year, with its upcoming earnings on August 27 being the next big catalyst.

Marvell Technology to publish earnings after the Google deal

MRVL, an Nvidia-backed company, will be in the spotlight next week as it releases its earnings report. This report will come a week after the company inked a $12 billion deal with Alphabet. As part of this deal, the company will develop Google’s AI chips, with the latter having an option to buy shares in Marvell worth over $12.2 billion. 

This is an important aspect since Marvell already develops Google’s TPUs. It also develops chips for other companies like Amazon and Microsoft, which are also intensifying their market share in the ASIC industry. Google is now selling these TPU chips to other companies.

Experts, including Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, are highly optimistic about Marvell Technology. In a statement earlier this year, Huang maintained that the company would attain a $1 trillion market capitalization over time. Nvidia then took a $2 billion stake in Marvell as part of this investment, with the two companies planning to work together on silicon photonics.

Analysts see Marvell’s growth continuing

Yahoo Finance data shows that analysts expect that Marvell’s growth will accelerate in the coming years. The average estimate among analysts is that its revenue jumped by 35% in the last quarter to $2.7 billion. For the year, the revenue estimate is $11.5 billion, a 40% annual increase. After that, analysts see the company’s revenue growing by 45% to $16.7 billion. 

Marvell’s profitability is also expected to keep growing in the foreseeable future. It made a GAAP earnings-per-share of $2.84 last year, and analysts expect that it will grow to $4.05 this year and $6.25 next year. This growth will partly be because of its recent acquisition of Celestial AI, a company that focuses on photonics technology that helps to connect AI chips within huge clusters.

Many analysts following the company have a bullish outlook, while admitting that its valuation is an issue. For example, Roth Capital’s Suji Desilva reiterated his bullish outlook, placing a $350 price target. Blayne Curtis, a BMO analyst, hiked the target to $325, while RBC has a target of $360.

Marvell stock price technical analysis

MRVL stock chart | Source: TradingView

The daily chart shows that the MRVL stock price has rebounded in the past few weeks, moving from a low of $162.93 in July to a high of $252 this week. It then retreated to $235 as chip stocks pulled back. 

The stock has remained above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). It also remains slightly above the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level.

Marvell Technology stock has also remained above the Supertrend indicator, which is a bullish sign in technical analysis. These technicals suggest that the stock will rebound, potentially to the psychological level of $300. The risk, however, is that it has formed a small bearish engulfing pattern, which may lead to more weakness.

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Xiaomi share price has crawled back this week, moving from a low of HKD 25.32 on August 18 to the current HKD 28.45. This rebound happened after the company published its financial results, which demonstrated the lingering weakness in its business.

Xiaomi’s revenue and profits dropped in Q2

China’s Xiaomi has become a major player in the smartphone and electric vehicle markets. It is the third-biggest smartphone company in the world after Apple and Samsung, while its EV brand is growing substantially in China.

The challenge, however, is that the company relies on memory and chips from other companies. These products have seen their prices surge in the past few months as the artificial intelligence boom has intensified.

This, in turn, has pushed it to hike prices, which is affecting its growth. The most recent results showed that its smartphone shipments stood at 31.2 million units in the second quarter, down by 26.3% from a year earlier. In contrast, Apple’s shipments rose by 5.3% to 60.5 million, while Samsung’s rose by 23% to 55.1 million. Its weakness was worse than other brands like OPPO and Vivo. 

The results showed that its revenue dropped to 108.9 billion yuan in Q2 from 116 billion in the same period last year. Its smartphone and IoT segment made 84 billion yuan, down from 94 billion a year earlier. This slowdown was offset by a slight increase in its electric vehicle revenue, which rose to 24.9 billion yuan. 

Xiaomi’s margins also continued falling, with the gross figure dropping to 19.8% from the previous 22.5%. The net profit fell to 6.2 billion yuan from 10.8 billion yuan in the same period last year. 

The unfortunate aspect is that Xiaomi’s business will remain under pressure in the foreseeable future as chip prices continue rising. In a statement, Samsung said that it would hike the price of semiconductor manufacturing. While Samsung does not make Xiaomi’s chips, the announcement means that other firms like TSMC and MediaTek may decide to do the same. 

Therefore, Xiaomi’s investors will likely have to accept the ongoing challenges and the fact that its turnaround will take longer than expected. This explains why its valuation multiples have improved, with the price-to-earnings ratio falling to 16, much lower than Apple’s 35. 

Xiaomi stock price forecast

Xiaomi chart | Source: TradingView

The weekly chart shows that the Xiaomi share price has been in a steep decline in the past few years, moving from the year-to-date high of HKD 61.5 to the current HKD 28.45. It has dropped below the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level. 

The stock has remained below the 50-week and 100-week Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), a sign that bears remain in control. Therefore, for now, there are signs that the ongoing rebound is a dead-cat bounce, which is a brief rebound that is followed by a retreat. 

If this happens, the next key level to watch will be the year-to-date low of HKD 21.44. A drop below that level will point to more downside over time.

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Webull stock made a strong bullish breakout, reaching its highest level since December 2025 after releasing its recent earnings report. BULL jumped to $9.88, up by over 120% from its lowest level this year, bringing its market capitalization to over $4.8 billion.

Webull’s business is thriving as volatility jumps

Webull, a company often called China’s Robinhood, is doing well, helped by the substantial volume and volatility. It also jumped as Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies soared, with the market capitalization of all tokens soaring to over $2.3 trillion.

The most recent results beat the consensus estimates in both the topline and bottom line. Its revenue jumped by 51% in the second quarter to $198 million. Most of this business was its trading business, whose revenue jumped by 66% to $147.7 million.

Most notably, the company’s profits continued rising, with its operating profit surging by 169% to $62.6 million. This growth was boosted by the end of the pattern day trader rule, which increased the number of US customers. 

Webull also intensified its international expansion, launching in countries such as Spain, Argentina, and Colombia. It has now expanded in 18 markets and is licensed in 35 markets. As a result, the number of its international funded accounts jumped to 810k. Also, its institutional assets under management jumped to $1.5 billion.

In total, Webull ended the second quarter to 28.2 million, up by 13% YoY. This is notable because the industry continues to be highly competitive, with companies like Robinhood and Interactive Brokers intensifying their competition.

The company’s equity notional volume jumped to $279 billion, while its options contracts volume rose by 68% YoY to 213 million. Webull’s adjusted net income soared to 43.2% from 15.2% in the same period last year.

Analysts are optimistic that the company’s business will continue growing in the foreseeable future. The average estimate is that its Q3 revenue will jump by 24% to $194 million, followed by 25% to $206 million. If these estimates are correct, its annual revenue will jump by 30% to $741 million.

These numbers may help to justify the company’s valuation, which is still substantially high. The estimated annual earnings-per-share is $0.14, while the stock is at $9.88. This gives it a forward PE ratio of 70, which is substantial considering that Robinhood has a multiple of 45.

Webull stock price technical analysis

BULL stock chart | Source: TradingView

The daily chart shows that the BULL stock has remained in a bull market in the past few months. It formed an ascending triangle pattern and has now moved above its upper side, confirming its bullish breakout. 

The stock has moved above the 50-day moving average, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been in an upward trend. It recently moved above the neutral level of 50 and is above the upward trend. 

Webull stock has also remained above the Ichimoku cloud and Supertrend indicators. Therefore, following this breakout, there is a likelihood that the stock will continue rising as bulls target the key resistance level of $15. 

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SpaceX shares (SPCX) fell around 4.94% to $132.60 in early Thursday trading, pushing the stock below its $135 initial public offering price as another large batch of shares became eligible for sale.

The decline comes after SpaceX defied expectations during its first major lockup expiration earlier this month, when more than 900 million shares became eligible for sale, but the stock instead rose sharply.

The immediate downward pressure was accelerated today after DZ Bank initiated coverage of SpaceX with a ‘Sell’ rating and a $100 price target, warning of a potential ‘crash risk’ given the massive capital requirements needed to justify its massive valuation.

SpaceX’s $86 billion IPO on June 11 attracted strong demand from investors drawn to Elon Musk’s plans for the company, which include expanding Starlink satellite internet, developing data centers in space, pursuing artificial intelligence, and pursuing longer-term space technology initiatives.

The stock initially rewarded investors, climbing from its $135 IPO price to more than $225 within days.

Less than two months later, shares fell as low as $105 before recovering to around $145.

The latest move below the IPO price highlights the volatility that can accompany large new listings as early investors gain the ability to sell their holdings.

SpaceX uses staggered share unlocks

SpaceX has adopted a staggered lockup structure that allows shareholders to sell their holdings across more than a dozen different dates.

The company’s second major unlock took place today, with about 319 million shares held by early investors and employees becoming eligible for trading.

The structure differs from the traditional IPO lockup, in which pre-IPO shareholders are generally prohibited from selling their shares for 180 days after a company goes public.

Lockups are designed to give new public-market investors greater confidence that existing shareholders will not immediately sell large portions of their holdings.

Pre-IPO shareholders can include company executives, venture capital firms, private equity investors, wealthy individuals and employees.

SpaceX’s staggered approach is intended to prevent a large volume of shares from reaching the market simultaneously and potentially putting greater pressure on the stock.

More than 700 million shares are expected to become available in September, followed by more than 650 million in October.

By the end of the year, about 4.9 billion SpaceX shares will have become eligible for trading.

Musk’s own shares remain locked up until June 2027, according to the current schedule.

The expanding supply has been a major factor in SpaceX’s early stock performance.

Investors have been cautious about buying ahead of potential profit-taking by early shareholders, contributing to the stock’s decline to around $105 in July, well below its IPO price.

Billions of shares remain locked

Most of the company remains held by pre-IPO shareholders, with Musk owning about 48% of the stock and controlling more than four-fifths of the voting power.

Shares becoming eligible for sale do not necessarily mean shareholders will sell them.

Eligibility to sell does not mean shareholders will immediately sell.

Large insider transactions can attract investor attention and may be interpreted by the market as a signal about an investor’s confidence in the company.

Some fund managers that have publicly backed Musk’s vision may therefore be less inclined to sell.

Other shareholders could have stronger incentives to take profits. These include funds that owned SpaceX before its IPO but primarily invest in private companies.

For other investors, the decision may depend on the stock’s price and the availability of alternative investment opportunities.

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Circle Internet Group stock jumped to its highest level since June 22nd as Bitcoin and most altcoins made a strong comeback. CRCL jumped to a high of $83.13, its highest level since June 22nd, up by 43% from its lowest level this year. Still, Circle faces some major risks ahead of the upcoming Arc Layer 1 launch.

Circle Internet Group stock is rising as cryptocurrencies soar

CRCL stock has done well in the past few days, helped by the ongoing cryptocurrency comeback. Bitcoin is slowly approaching the important resistance level of $720,000, while the market capitalization of all coins is hitting $2.3 trillion. 

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has jumped to 55, its highest level since April 22nd. In most cases, a soaring index normally leads to more gains in the crypto market. Circle’s shares often do well whenever Bitcoin and most altcoins are in an uptrend.

Bitcoin and other altcoins are benefiting from the ongoing inflows from American investors. Data shows that spot BTC ETF inflows have jumped by over $1.4 billion this month. Also, Ethereum ETF inflows have soared by $534 million this month after adding $365 million last month.

The rally is happening as investors focus on the falling long-term bond yields. Data shows that the 30-year yield dropped to 5.17% from the year-to-date high of 5.33%. This retreat happened after the Treasury Secretary intervened by launching buybacks.

Circle stock jumps ahead of Arc L1 launch

CRCL stock also jumped after the company announced the planned date for the Arc Layer 1 launch. This launch will happen on September 16 this year. 

Arc’s testnet has had over 502 million transactions and has over 2.8 million transacting wallets. It has also achieved some notable network validators like ICE, Mastercard, MoneyGram, SBI, and Standard Chartered.

Circle hopes that the new product will become the main blockchain for stablecoin transactions, beating popular chains like Ethereum and Tron.

However, there is a risk that the network will not be as successful as analysts and traders believe. For one, other companies that have launched their layer-1 and layer-2 chains have largely flopped. Only Robinhood and Coinbase have achieved some substantial success.

Circle Internet’s growth has slowed

There is a risk that Circle’s growth has stalled in the past few months. The most recent results showed that its revenue and reserve income less distribution, transaction, and other costs came in at $289 million, up by 15% YoY from the same period last year. However, this revenue was a small increase from the previous quarter.

Analysts expect the upcoming earnings to show that its revenue rose by 6.35% to $786 million. For the year, analysts expect the revenue growth to be 9.3%, much lower than what it made a year earlier. 

There are signs that the revenue growth will be much slower than expected as the USDC market capitalization has continued falling. It dropped to $72.40 billion from the year-to-date high of over $80 billion.

At the same time, short-term US bond yields have pulled back, with the ten-year moving from 4.37% on July 23rd to 4.177%. 

Circle stock technical analysis

CRCL stock chart | Source: TradingView

The daily chart shows that the CRCL stock has rebounded after forming a double-bottom pattern at $58.30. It has already moved above the neckline of $72.72, its highest level on July 21st. 

The stock has already jumped above the 50-day moving average, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved close to 70. Therefore, the stock will likely continue rising a bit, and then resume the downward trend. 

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