New brokers rarely get much room for error in a market dominated by established names.

Alex Kolpokchi, who spent more than a decade at IG Group and Pepperstone, believes Base Markets can compete by stripping away some of the complexity that has built up around retail trading. 

His argument is straightforward: traders should know what they are paying, how their orders are executed, and how their money is handled. 

Base Markets charges $4 round turn per standard FX lot through its Base Zero account and is targeting the UAE for its next regulatory expansion, with plans to eventually broaden into other asset classes. 

Invezz: You spent more than a decade at IG Group and Pepperstone before founding Base Markets. What did that experience show you, and what did you want to do differently?

I joined IG in 2013 as a trainee sales trader and spent around five years there, first on the German support desk and later in business development.

That gave me a very strong foundation in the industry. I then joined Pepperstone in 2018 and spent roughly seven years with the business, including four years leading its Middle East operations from Dubai and serving as a director of its DFSA-regulated entity. 

Both were very valuable experiences. They are reputable and well-regulated businesses—particularly IG, given its size and history—and I learned a great deal from both about what it takes to build and operate a credible broker.

Looking at the industry as a whole, however, I felt that in recent years it had moved too far away from the actual product and what really matters or what should matter to the end client. 

It became less about trading the financial markets and the conditions surrounding that experience, and more about selling an image of trading. 

At times, parts of it became a little ridiculous, in the form of oversized bonuses, expensive sponsorships, exaggerated promises, and the almost obligatory Lamborghini somewhere in the advertising.

There is nothing wrong with marketing a business, of course, but none of those things tell a client what they will actually pay, whether there is meaningful liquidity behind the price they are shown, how their orders will be executed, whether they can withdraw their money properly or whether somebody competent will respond when they have a problem. 

Those are the things that determine whether the broker is actually any good. Instead, a lot of what we see in the industry these days sells a certain image predicated on hope and aspiration, the very things that are provided to try and get the client to trade with a broker, ultimately leading to a poor trading experience and losses.

That is where the idea for Base came from. We wanted to build a serious broker without all the noise around it and put the fundamentals back at the centre of the relationship.

Base is not an attempt to reinvent brokerage. We are taking what we learned from established businesses and applying it within a company that can remain closer to its clients and make practical decisions when something needs to be solved. 

Our team brings experience from firms including IG, Pepperstone, Capital.com, StoneX, and XTB, with senior responsibility across dealing and market risk, finance, payments, sales and operations.

That premise, together with the team behind it, gives us a strong starting point, but clients will ultimately judge us on what we deliver. 

It goes against the current grain, but intentionally so; we think our unique selling point is honesty and integrity, and that in itself says a lot about the current state of the industry.

Invezz: Base Zero charges USD 4 round turn per standard FX lot from the first trade. How did you arrive at that price, and how can it support a profitable business?

The decision on how we price our main products came from a fairly simple question: what should a valuable client pay without having to negotiate for it first? 

At most brokers, the starting commission is closer to USD 7 round turn and active clients may later receive part of that back through rebates, volume tiers, or individual arrangements. There may be a commercial logic behind that structure, but from the client’s perspective it creates a lot of unnecessary steps.

We decided to cut to the chase. With Base Zero, the commission is USD 4 round turn from the first trade, without having to reach a certain volume or negotiate a private arrangement first. 

A client trading on a Base Zero account can see the actual commission from the beginning and does not need to calculate what the eventual cost may be after tiers, rebates, and various conditions are applied. 

We also built the business around this price from the outset. It is not a temporary offer that has been applied to a much more expensive operating model. 

The commercial logic is based on keeping the structure relatively lean, attracting clients who trade regularly and earning less on each individual trade over a longer relationship.

Of course, there will still be clients who prefer the rebate system and want special arrangements based on their trading volumes. 

To allow this degree of commercial flexibility, we also offer the Base Standard account. Here too, the spreads and costs are communicated transparently, with the possibility to agree a bespoke arrangement if such is required by the client.

I also think parts of the industry have become too focused on how much money can be made from a client, and how quickly. 

The model can become one of bringing somebody in, earning as much as possible while they are active, and then replacing them with the next client. 

We would rather take a slower and steadier approach: earn less on each trade but build a longer-term relationship with somebody who chooses to stay because the pricing is fair and the overall experience works for them. 

If done properly, that should produce a better outcome for the client and a more sustainable business for us in the long term.

Base is also part of a group of companies and was built alongside a substantial systematic fund. 

This allowed us to establish key relationships and invest in dealing, monitoring, and risk infrastructure earlier than a newly launched broker normally could. 

The two businesses operate separately, but the scale and infrastructure behind the fund help us keep the underlying model efficient and offer pricing that many other brokers in the earlier stage of their lifecycle would simply not be able to offer.

Ultimately, the model works if we retain clients, generate repeat activity, and continue to give clients a reason to stay, rather than relying on a constant cycle of replacing one client with the next. 

That should really be the same discipline that all brokers rely on, rather than churning through clients quickly in the hope to replace them. 

We have simply designed our pricing model around a lower starting commission with a view to build longer lasting client relationships.

Invezz: The CFD industry continues to face scrutiny over leverage, client losses and marketing practices. How do you expect regulation to evolve over the next five years, and where does Base’s own licensing strategy go next?

Regulation is extremely important, but I think the industry sometimes treats it as a very binary question: a broker with a long list of top-tier licences must be good, while a broker with a smaller regulatory footprint must be bad. 

The reality is more nuanced. There are brokers regulated by some of the world’s leading regulators that I personally would not want to trade with, and there are brokers without such an extensive collection of licences that I consider credible operators.

A licence is therefore the starting point rather than the entire answer. 

Clients should look at the business more holistically: what team is behind the broker, what are their operating principles, whether the pricing and terms are transparent, how client money is handled, what the execution and withdrawal experience is like, and whether there are experienced people taking responsibility for the operation.

Over the next five years, I think regulators will increasingly take the same broader view. Leverage will remain part of the discussion, but the focus is likely to extend further across the client journey: how a client was acquired, what expectations were created through the advertising, whether the product was appropriate for them, and how the broker behaved once they began trading.

Regulation also needs to remain proportionate and work across borders. 

If one jurisdiction introduces very restrictive rules while clients can easily open accounts with less regulated providers elsewhere, the activity may simply move rather than disappear. 

This is something we have already seen in the last decade, and it can improve domestic statistics without necessarily improving the overall outcome for the client.

Cross-jurisdictional cooperation therefore matters even more. You sometimes see brokers market themselves using the credibility of a highly regulated entity, while the client is ultimately onboarded with another entity under a different regulatory framework and may receive a very different level of protection or overall experience. 

The contractual entity may be disclosed somewhere in the fine print of the terms, but the main impression created by the marketing comes from a licence that does not actually cover that client. 

I would like to see regulators work more closely across jurisdictions and pay greater attention to how regulatory credentials are used at group level, as well as whether the entity promoted most prominently is the one actually providing the service. 

We have already seen some movement in that direction, and I think that cooperation will continue over the coming years. 

That is another reason why clients should assess a broker holistically rather than relying only on the most recognisable licence displayed on its website.

Base is currently regulated by the Financial Services Commission in Mauritius. 

Mauritius provides an established regulatory framework from which to launch the international business and begin building an operating track record. 

Our immediate licensing priority is now the UAE because we see it as a core market for our future and somewhere we intend to establish a proper long-term presence.

After that, we will look to expand our regulatory footprint further as the business grows. The aim is not to collect licences for the sake of displaying more logos; each new entity needs a genuine commercial purpose and the people, capital and controls required to operate it properly.

Invezz: Base is entering a crowded market dominated by established global brands. Beyond lower commissions, what would persuade an experienced trader to give Base part of their business?

Experienced traders are naturally sceptical about a new broker, and I think that is entirely reasonable. 

If somebody already has a broker that works for them, I would not expect them to move everything to Base—or any other broker, for that matter—because of an advertisement, an interview, or even a lower commission.

The realistic starting point is to give us a small part of their business and test the experience. 

Open a demo or fund a smaller live account, verify the commission, compare the spreads and execution using the strategy and trade sizes they normally use, make a withdrawal, and see how the team responds when something needs to be resolved. That gives the trader their own evidence rather than asking them to rely on ours.

Lower commissions provide a reason to look at Base, but they are only one part of the decision. 

To me, premium service should be practical rather than theatrical. We process withdrawal requests typically within 24 hours, hold retail client funds in segregated accounts across multiple financial institutions, and give clients access to real people, including a named account manager and, where needed, direct access to senior decision-makers within the business.

I also think parts of the industry have developed a fairly complacent, take-it-or-leave-it mindset. 

Clients are often given a standard answer, a standard account and a standard set of conditions, regardless of whether their requirements create a genuine reason to consider something different. 

We want to remain commercially flexible and try to accommodate client requests wherever possible. It means listening to what the client is trying to achieve and looking for a practical solution rather than automatically falling back on a lazy default answer.

Established global brands have an obvious advantage in recognition and existing trust. 

Our advantage is that we can remain closer to the client, respond more quickly, and take ownership of the relationship. We have to prove that through the experience we provide. 

The commission may be what persuades somebody to test Base, but the execution, withdrawals, flexibility of our offering, and service will determine whether they stay.

Invezz: What are Base Markets’ priorities over the next twelve months, and where do you want the company to be in three to five years?

Over the next twelve months, the priorities are fairly straightforward. 

We need to progress our UAE regulatory plans, strengthen our presence in the market, and turn the early activity we have seen into a more established business. 

At this stage, the focus is on continuing to invest in credible talent, infrastructure and client offering, while demonstrating that the activity we are generating can be scaled. 

That means building a sensible mix of direct clients and partners without becoming overly dependent on one acquisition channel or one geography. 

A brokerage can show rapid growth while still being quite fragile underneath, so the quality and balance of that growth matter as much as the headline numbers.

Over three to five years, our ambition goes beyond building a larger CFD broker. We will expand into other asset classes and develop a broader financial-services offering. ‘

We are already well positioned for that given the wider scope of businesses within the group, but the sequence matters. The immediate priority is to establish the core brokerage, build the UAE business and continue investing in the foundations required to scale it properly.

From there, we intend to add further licences that allow us to enter other markets, alongside the products and infrastructure required to offer a broader range of asset classes. 

The real challenge will be growing the business without losing the responsiveness, accountability and practical decision-making that we have today. 

Our success, in my view, will be defined by our ability to scale significantly and broaden our reach while staying true to the qualities and moral values that set us apart.

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The EUR/USD exchange rate continued its strong sell-off today, reaching its lowest level in 17 months as concerns about the European fiscal health accelerated. It tumbled to 1.1162, down by over 4.67% from its highest point in September, with focus now shifting to the upcoming Federal Reserve minutes.

Euro drops as Europe’s fiscal health struggles

The EUR/USD pair tumbled sharply as investors remained concerned about Europe’s fiscal health. Recent data shows that government bond yields have surged in the region. In France, the ten-year yield jumped to a multi-year high of 4.99% last week. Similarly, in Germany and other countries, yields have continued rising.

The pair is also falling as Pedro Sanchez, the Spanish Prime Minister, considers calling for an early election after losing a crucial housing vote. According to Bloomberg, the cabinet and other high-ranking government officials support calling for an early election. This comes at a time when France has seen substantial protests in the past few weeks. In a note, a Lombard Odier analyst said:

“Bond and currency markets are clearly signaling investor discomfort about the rising instability of the French government and erosion in the country’s fiscal anchor ahead of the elections in 2027.”

These developments come at a time when many European countries are struggling, with the European Central Bank (ECB) predicting that it will grow by 0.9% this year. That growth will be much lower than the current inflation rate, which has remained above 2% amid the US-Iran crisis. 

FOMC to publish minutes of last meeting

The next important catalyst for the EUR/USD pair will be the upcoming minutes of the last meeting by Federal Reserve. These minutes, which will come out on Wednesday, will provide more hints on what to expect in the coming meeting.

However, these minutes will likely have a mild impact on the pair because the situation has changed substantially since the last meeting. For example, a report released last week showed that the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) softened in August. 

Another report released on Friday showed that the economy created just 29,000 jobs last month, much lower than the expected 90,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% during the month. 

Therefore, these numbers mean that the Fed will not have an incentive to hike rates again this year as analysts expected.

EUR/USD technical analysis

EURUSD chart | Source: TradingView

The weekly chart shows that the EUR/USD pair has slumped in the past few weeks. It has already crashed below the important support level of 1.1391, its lowest level in July last year and March and April this year. Moving below that level confirmed the bearish breakout. 

The pair has now moved to the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level. It also slumped below the 50-week moving average, while the Supertrend indicator has turned red. Therefore, the path of the least resistance for the pair is bearish, with the next key target to watch being the psychological level of 1.100.

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The USD/ZAR exchange rate will be in the spotlight as the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) delivers its interest rate decision on Wednesday. This decision comes a week after the Federal Reserve hiked rates and signaled that it will hike again this year. It was trading at 16.23, a few points below last week’s high of 16.41.

SARB interest rate decision

The main USD/ZAR news this week will be from South Africa, where the statistics agency will publish the closely watched inflation report and the central bank will deliver its monetary policy decision. 

Economists expect the report to show that South Africa’s inflation remained elevated in August as energy prices jumped. The average estimate among analysts is that the headline CPI rose from 4.3% in July to 4.5% in August. Core inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy products, is expected to remain at 4.2%. 

These figures are above the SARB’s 3% target, so the bank may hike interest rates by 0.25%. If this happens, it will be the second time that the SARB has hiked interest rates this year. In its last meeting, it caught investors off guard by leaving rates unchanged at 7%. Many analysts were expecting the bank to hike.

South Africa’s inflation is a big challenge because of the rising petrol and diesel prices because of the worsening situation in the Middle East. Tensions between the US and Iran have continued to rise, while Saudi Arabia and Houthis have launched some major attacks.

Federal Reserve hiked rates last week

The SARB decision comes exactly a week after Kevin Warsh and his team at the Federal Reserve delivered their rate decision. As most analysts were expecting, the bank decided to hike interest rates by 0.25%.

Most importantly, Warsh signaled that the bank will hike interest rates again later this year. Economists now predict that the hike will happen in the December meeting. 

The Fed hike is important for the USD/ZAR pair because of the carry trade that has existed for a while. A carry trade is a situation where investors borrow a low-interest-rate currency and then invest a high-yielding one. 

In this case, the spread between the US and South African rates widened last week, but will go back to where it was if SARB decides to hike interest rates.

USD/ZAR technical analysis

USDZAR chart | Source: TradingView

The four-hour chart shows that the USD/ZAR pair has been in an upward trend in the past few months. It formed a double-bottom pattern at 15.92 and a neckline at 16.20. A double-bottom is a common bullish reversal pattern in technical analysis. 

The pair is now attempting to retest the pattern’s neckline. Such a move is known as a break-and-retest and is one of the most common bullish continuation patterns in technical analysis. 

The pair sits slightly above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the Supertrend indicator. These technicals suggest that the pair may resume the uptrend, potentially to this month’s high of 16.41. 

On the flip side, the pair has also formed what looks like a head-and-shoulders pattern, which, in this case, may lead to more downside.

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The USD/CHF exchange rate continued its recent upward trend, reaching its highest level since June last year as the spread between the US and Swiss interest rates continues to widen. It jumped to 0.8262, up by over 8.7% from its lowest level this year.

Swiss National Bank interest rate decision

The USD/CHF pair will be in the spotlight this week as the Swiss National Bank (SNB) delivers its interest rate decision on Thursday. Economists expect the bank to maintain interest rates at 0% in this meeting. 

This decision comes at a time when the Swiss economy is seeing modest inflation. A report showed that the headline consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.80% in August from 0.40% in July.

Swiss inflation is expected to continue rising because of the ongoing energy shock in the region. For example, diesel prices in the country have jumped to a record high of CHF 2.41, and the surge is continuing. Petrol prices have also continued rising this month because of the ongoing US-Iran war. 

Still, the SNB will likely maintain interest rates unchanged so that it can devalue its currency. As a net exporter, the central bank tends to prefer a weaker Swiss franc, since this makes its products relatively cheaper. 

Federal Reserve may keep hiking rates

The USD/CHF pair has also remained in an uptrend because of the relatively stronger US dollar. The greenback jumped after the Federal Reserve delivered its interest rate decision.

As was widely expected, Kevin Warsh and the team decided to hike interest rates by 0.25% to between 3.75% and 4%. Most importantly, officials signaled that they will continue hiking this year to combat the elevated inflation.

Traders on Polymarket and other prediction marketplaces suggest that the bank will hike either in its October or its December meeting. If this happens, it will bring rates to between 4% and 4.25%.

These actions have a major impact on the USD/CHF pair since the spread between the US and Switzerland will continue widening. This makes it one of the most popular pairs among carry trade investors.

A carry trade is a situation in which investors borrow money from a low-interest-rate currency and then invests in a high-rate one. This pair has become popular now that the US and Japan are hiking interest rates.

USD/CHF technical analysis

USD/CHF chart | Source: TradingView

The daily chart shows that the USD/CHF pair has been in a strong bull run in the past few months from a low of 0.7600 in February to a high of 0.8262. It formed an ascending channel and recently moved below its upper side. 

The pair is attempting to retest the crucial support level of 0.8207, its highest level on July 29. It remains above the 50-day and 100-day moving averages.

Therefore, the pair will likely continue rising as bulls target the key resistance level of 0.8350. This view will be confirmed if it moves above the upper side of the channel at 0.8300.

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The Japanese yen continued its strong downward trend, reaching its lowest level since September 3 as traders reflected on the latest Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate decisions. The USD/JPY pair rose to 157.03, up sharply from this month’s low of 152.90. 

Bank of Japan hikes interest rates

The USD/JPY pair continued rising after the BoJ delivered its highly anticipated interest rate decision. As was the case with widely expected, the bank decided to hike rates by 0.25% to 1.25%. It pushed rates to the highest level in more than two decades. 

The bank hiked interest rates to boost the Japanese yen and to curtail the elevated consumer inflation. Data released earlier today showed that the headline consumer price index (CPI) remained at 1.9%, while the core CPI eased a bit from 1.8% to 1.7%. 

Japan’s inflation will likely remain at an elevated level in the coming months now that energy prices are soaring. Crude oil priceshave risen, with Brent and the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trading above $100 as the US-Iran war continues. Officials hinted that they will hike interest rates this year if inflation continues rising.

Federal Reserve interest rate hike

The USD/JPY pair continued rising as investors reacted to the latest Federal Reserve interest rate decision. As was widely expected, the Fed decided to hike interest rates by 0.25% in a unanimous vote.

The Fed brought rates to between 3.75% and 4%, with Kevin Warsh hinting that the bank will deliver another increase. A Polymarket market has a 51% probability that the bank will hike interest rates by another 25 bps in October. Another one has a 66% chance that the bank will hike in December. 

The Fed is hiking rates at a time when inflation has remained sticky. A recent report showed that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.4% in August, higher than the 2% target.

The USD/JPY pair is rising for two main reasons. First, the BoJ’s rate hike matched market expectations, while the Fed’s hawkish stance did not. That surprise hawkishness is why the US dollar has kept rising. Second, with Japanese rates still low relative to the US, the yen remains attractive as a funding currency for carry trades, adding further upward pressure on the pair.

USD/JPY technical analysis

USDJPY chart | Source: TradingView

The 2-hour chart shows that the USD/JPY pair has been in a strong upward trend in the past few days. It moved from a low of 152.90 earlier this month to the current 157. 

The pair has moved above the important resistance level of 156.75, its highest level on September 4 and the 50% Fibonacci Retracement. It has remained above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

The pair has also formed an ascending channel. Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved to the overbought level of 75.50. Therefore, the pair may retreat to the lower side of the channel in the coming days. If this happens, it will retreat to the lower side of the channel.

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The Japanese yen has soared in the past few weeks, and is now hovering near its highest level since February this year. The USD/JPY pair has dropped to 154.17, down sharply from the year-to-date high of 163.96. Focus now shifts to some notable macro numbers and the upcoming monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan (BoJ).

US consumer inflation data and rising bond yields

The USD/JPY pair will be in the spotlight today as investors react to several important events. One of them is that the US will release the August consumer price index (CPI), which will provide hints on what to expect. 

There are signs that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish a strong consumer inflation report. A report on Thursday showed that the headline Producer Price Index (PPI) rose from 0.1% in July to 0.4% in August, while core PPI fell rose 0.2% on a monthly basis. The two numbers came in at 5.4% and 4.6%, respectively. The annual numbers remain above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2.0%. 

Economists expect the upcoming numbers to show that the headline CPI rose by 3.4% last month, with the core CPI falling to 2.4%. Worse, there are signs that inflation will continue rising now that gasoline and diesel prices have continued rising. 

The average gasoline price in the US jumped to $4.27, while diesel crossed the important milestone of $6. This is notable because these benchmarks were trading at $3.19 and $3.7, respectively last year. 

Oil prices continued rising this week as the US and Iran attacks continued. Worse, Houthis have already taken a major port city and are advancing towards the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Also, Trump has said that he expects the war will end after the election and there are now no talks going on between the two sides. 

These developments mean that the Federal Reserve will need to hike interest rates as soon as next week.

Bank of Japan rate hike

The USD/JPY pair has also crashed as traders wait for next week’s Bank of Japan interest rate decision. Economists are unanimous that the bank will decide to hike interest rates by 25 basis points in this meeting. 

A BoJ rate hike would help to bridge the gap between interest rates in the US and Japan, which, in theory, should invalidate the carry trade opportunity. This view, however, would not be effective if the US hikes rates as well as the spread remains the same.

USD/JPY technical analysis

USDJPY chart | Source: TradingView

The daily chart shows that the USD/JPY pair has slumped in the past few months, moving from a high of 163.97 to the current 154.26. It has remained below the important support level of 155.21, its lowest level in May and August this year.

The pair has moved below the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level. Also, it has dropped below the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). The pair will likely continue falling, potentially to the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level at 152.

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