The USD/ZAR exchange rate will be in the spotlight as the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) delivers its interest rate decision on Wednesday. This decision comes a week after the Federal Reserve hiked rates and signaled that it will hike again this year. It was trading at 16.23, a few points below last week’s high of 16.41.

SARB interest rate decision

The main USD/ZAR news this week will be from South Africa, where the statistics agency will publish the closely watched inflation report and the central bank will deliver its monetary policy decision. 

Economists expect the report to show that South Africa’s inflation remained elevated in August as energy prices jumped. The average estimate among analysts is that the headline CPI rose from 4.3% in July to 4.5% in August. Core inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy products, is expected to remain at 4.2%. 

These figures are above the SARB’s 3% target, so the bank may hike interest rates by 0.25%. If this happens, it will be the second time that the SARB has hiked interest rates this year. In its last meeting, it caught investors off guard by leaving rates unchanged at 7%. Many analysts were expecting the bank to hike.

South Africa’s inflation is a big challenge because of the rising petrol and diesel prices because of the worsening situation in the Middle East. Tensions between the US and Iran have continued to rise, while Saudi Arabia and Houthis have launched some major attacks.

Federal Reserve hiked rates last week

The SARB decision comes exactly a week after Kevin Warsh and his team at the Federal Reserve delivered their rate decision. As most analysts were expecting, the bank decided to hike interest rates by 0.25%.

Most importantly, Warsh signaled that the bank will hike interest rates again later this year. Economists now predict that the hike will happen in the December meeting. 

The Fed hike is important for the USD/ZAR pair because of the carry trade that has existed for a while. A carry trade is a situation where investors borrow a low-interest-rate currency and then invest a high-yielding one. 

In this case, the spread between the US and South African rates widened last week, but will go back to where it was if SARB decides to hike interest rates.

USD/ZAR technical analysis

USDZAR chart | Source: TradingView

The four-hour chart shows that the USD/ZAR pair has been in an upward trend in the past few months. It formed a double-bottom pattern at 15.92 and a neckline at 16.20. A double-bottom is a common bullish reversal pattern in technical analysis. 

The pair is now attempting to retest the pattern’s neckline. Such a move is known as a break-and-retest and is one of the most common bullish continuation patterns in technical analysis. 

The pair sits slightly above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the Supertrend indicator. These technicals suggest that the pair may resume the uptrend, potentially to this month’s high of 16.41. 

On the flip side, the pair has also formed what looks like a head-and-shoulders pattern, which, in this case, may lead to more downside.

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The USD/CHF exchange rate continued its recent upward trend, reaching its highest level since June last year as the spread between the US and Swiss interest rates continues to widen. It jumped to 0.8262, up by over 8.7% from its lowest level this year.

Swiss National Bank interest rate decision

The USD/CHF pair will be in the spotlight this week as the Swiss National Bank (SNB) delivers its interest rate decision on Thursday. Economists expect the bank to maintain interest rates at 0% in this meeting. 

This decision comes at a time when the Swiss economy is seeing modest inflation. A report showed that the headline consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.80% in August from 0.40% in July.

Swiss inflation is expected to continue rising because of the ongoing energy shock in the region. For example, diesel prices in the country have jumped to a record high of CHF 2.41, and the surge is continuing. Petrol prices have also continued rising this month because of the ongoing US-Iran war. 

Still, the SNB will likely maintain interest rates unchanged so that it can devalue its currency. As a net exporter, the central bank tends to prefer a weaker Swiss franc, since this makes its products relatively cheaper. 

Federal Reserve may keep hiking rates

The USD/CHF pair has also remained in an uptrend because of the relatively stronger US dollar. The greenback jumped after the Federal Reserve delivered its interest rate decision.

As was widely expected, Kevin Warsh and the team decided to hike interest rates by 0.25% to between 3.75% and 4%. Most importantly, officials signaled that they will continue hiking this year to combat the elevated inflation.

Traders on Polymarket and other prediction marketplaces suggest that the bank will hike either in its October or its December meeting. If this happens, it will bring rates to between 4% and 4.25%.

These actions have a major impact on the USD/CHF pair since the spread between the US and Switzerland will continue widening. This makes it one of the most popular pairs among carry trade investors.

A carry trade is a situation in which investors borrow money from a low-interest-rate currency and then invests in a high-rate one. This pair has become popular now that the US and Japan are hiking interest rates.

USD/CHF technical analysis

USD/CHF chart | Source: TradingView

The daily chart shows that the USD/CHF pair has been in a strong bull run in the past few months from a low of 0.7600 in February to a high of 0.8262. It formed an ascending channel and recently moved below its upper side. 

The pair is attempting to retest the crucial support level of 0.8207, its highest level on July 29. It remains above the 50-day and 100-day moving averages.

Therefore, the pair will likely continue rising as bulls target the key resistance level of 0.8350. This view will be confirmed if it moves above the upper side of the channel at 0.8300.

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The Japanese yen continued its strong downward trend, reaching its lowest level since September 3 as traders reflected on the latest Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate decisions. The USD/JPY pair rose to 157.03, up sharply from this month’s low of 152.90. 

Bank of Japan hikes interest rates

The USD/JPY pair continued rising after the BoJ delivered its highly anticipated interest rate decision. As was the case with widely expected, the bank decided to hike rates by 0.25% to 1.25%. It pushed rates to the highest level in more than two decades. 

The bank hiked interest rates to boost the Japanese yen and to curtail the elevated consumer inflation. Data released earlier today showed that the headline consumer price index (CPI) remained at 1.9%, while the core CPI eased a bit from 1.8% to 1.7%. 

Japan’s inflation will likely remain at an elevated level in the coming months now that energy prices are soaring. Crude oil priceshave risen, with Brent and the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trading above $100 as the US-Iran war continues. Officials hinted that they will hike interest rates this year if inflation continues rising.

Federal Reserve interest rate hike

The USD/JPY pair continued rising as investors reacted to the latest Federal Reserve interest rate decision. As was widely expected, the Fed decided to hike interest rates by 0.25% in a unanimous vote.

The Fed brought rates to between 3.75% and 4%, with Kevin Warsh hinting that the bank will deliver another increase. A Polymarket market has a 51% probability that the bank will hike interest rates by another 25 bps in October. Another one has a 66% chance that the bank will hike in December. 

The Fed is hiking rates at a time when inflation has remained sticky. A recent report showed that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.4% in August, higher than the 2% target.

The USD/JPY pair is rising for two main reasons. First, the BoJ’s rate hike matched market expectations, while the Fed’s hawkish stance did not. That surprise hawkishness is why the US dollar has kept rising. Second, with Japanese rates still low relative to the US, the yen remains attractive as a funding currency for carry trades, adding further upward pressure on the pair.

USD/JPY technical analysis

USDJPY chart | Source: TradingView

The 2-hour chart shows that the USD/JPY pair has been in a strong upward trend in the past few days. It moved from a low of 152.90 earlier this month to the current 157. 

The pair has moved above the important resistance level of 156.75, its highest level on September 4 and the 50% Fibonacci Retracement. It has remained above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

The pair has also formed an ascending channel. Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved to the overbought level of 75.50. Therefore, the pair may retreat to the lower side of the channel in the coming days. If this happens, it will retreat to the lower side of the channel.

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The Japanese yen has soared in the past few weeks, and is now hovering near its highest level since February this year. The USD/JPY pair has dropped to 154.17, down sharply from the year-to-date high of 163.96. Focus now shifts to some notable macro numbers and the upcoming monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan (BoJ).

US consumer inflation data and rising bond yields

The USD/JPY pair will be in the spotlight today as investors react to several important events. One of them is that the US will release the August consumer price index (CPI), which will provide hints on what to expect. 

There are signs that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish a strong consumer inflation report. A report on Thursday showed that the headline Producer Price Index (PPI) rose from 0.1% in July to 0.4% in August, while core PPI fell rose 0.2% on a monthly basis. The two numbers came in at 5.4% and 4.6%, respectively. The annual numbers remain above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2.0%. 

Economists expect the upcoming numbers to show that the headline CPI rose by 3.4% last month, with the core CPI falling to 2.4%. Worse, there are signs that inflation will continue rising now that gasoline and diesel prices have continued rising. 

The average gasoline price in the US jumped to $4.27, while diesel crossed the important milestone of $6. This is notable because these benchmarks were trading at $3.19 and $3.7, respectively last year. 

Oil prices continued rising this week as the US and Iran attacks continued. Worse, Houthis have already taken a major port city and are advancing towards the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Also, Trump has said that he expects the war will end after the election and there are now no talks going on between the two sides. 

These developments mean that the Federal Reserve will need to hike interest rates as soon as next week.

Bank of Japan rate hike

The USD/JPY pair has also crashed as traders wait for next week’s Bank of Japan interest rate decision. Economists are unanimous that the bank will decide to hike interest rates by 25 basis points in this meeting. 

A BoJ rate hike would help to bridge the gap between interest rates in the US and Japan, which, in theory, should invalidate the carry trade opportunity. This view, however, would not be effective if the US hikes rates as well as the spread remains the same.

USD/JPY technical analysis

USDJPY chart | Source: TradingView

The daily chart shows that the USD/JPY pair has slumped in the past few months, moving from a high of 163.97 to the current 154.26. It has remained below the important support level of 155.21, its lowest level in May and August this year.

The pair has moved below the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level. Also, it has dropped below the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). The pair will likely continue falling, potentially to the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level at 152.

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OANDA has, once again, secured the top position for both Overall Client Satisfaction and Platform Features in the United Kingdom for the year 2026.

This comes following the publication of the 2026 UK Leverage Trading Report by Investment Trends.

This achievement underlines OANDA’s work in the fintech sector and solidifies the company’s reputation as a leading global broker for professional and retail traders.

The benchmark of excellence: what is the investment trends report?

Investment Trends is a specialist global market research and strategic consulting firm in the financial services sector, providing data-driven insights into the investment and trading landscape.

The Report is a specialised publication that serves as a vital benchmark of excellence for traders in highly competitive financial markets.

This report represents an important statement for everyday traders who value honesty and real opinions from others.

This is because, unlike other awards decided by closed-door panels or sponsors, the Investment Trends Report evaluates preferences and satisfaction from thousands of other traders.

The Report is built on feedback from active market traders and reflects real user experiences.

For traders, this independent validation is an unbiased proof of a broker’s quality and value delivery.

It reflects OANDA’s strength as an industry leader through real user experiences.

Deconstructing the win: why UK traders voted OANDA #1

OANDA’s dual victory in the 2026 Investment Trends report is built on its well-documented client-focused philosophy.

Since 1996, OANDA has designed its products and services around clients, focusing entirely on active user experience.

In an industry where brokers often prefer rapid acquisition over long-term retention, OANDA’s focus on clients’ needs stands out.

They have built a framework where platform evolution is directly dictated by client feedback.

This is possible because OANDA continuously aligns corporate operations with the evolving needs of retail and professional investors.

The high level of customer satisfaction rests primarily on transparent pricing and superior trade execution, two foundational pillars of OANDA’s operations.

Execution speed is crucial for traders across CFD trading and other OANDA products, where even a millisecond of latency can lead to unfavourable slippage.

The broker has invested heavily in robust, institutional-grade liquidity pipelines, ensuring orders are filled quickly and at the exact requested prices. This minimises friction when executing trades.

The emphasis on transparent pricing protects retail traders in highly volatile markets, where spreads often widen.

OANDA’s commitment to upfront, predictable pricing eliminates hidden costs and allows traders to calculate their exact risk-reward ratio.

All of these have helped OANDA cultivate trust as the top-rated platform for overall client satisfaction in the UK.

OANDA’s platforms

A modern, robust trading ecosystem powers OANDA’s trading services.

Its high-performance trading architecture and proprietary pricing mechanisms are designed to thrive amidst the demands of modern financial markets. 

The infrastructure is in three distinct layers: the core engine (v20 Execution Model), API-first layer for developers, and frontend & infrastructure technologies

OANDA leverages a robust corporate web and application infrastructure to store and deliver content to users without lag, powered by cloud and edge network solutions.

The broker partners with leading providers to deliver high-speed, co-located VPS for continuous 24/7 trading.

Based on its client-focused approach, OANDA provides multiple cross-compatible environments for clients.

These emphasise data depth and near-instant execution. The core interfaces include the OANDA Hub, the centralised account management and reporting cockpit, and the OANDA native iOS/Android platform, available on both web and mobile.

OANDA also integrates deeply with TradingView for advanced tools and is fully compatible with MetaTrader 4 and MetaTrader 5.

Corporate vision: insights from leadership

OANDA’s recent award is not a coincidence. For years, its leadership has remained dedicated to serving clients and driving innovation.

The broker’s response to the Investment Trends report underlines this.

James Abbot, OANDA UK Head of Revenue, said, “We are incredibly proud to receive these prestigious accolades from Investment Trends. Being voted number one for both Overall Client Satisfaction and Platform Features is a direct reflection of our commitment to putting our clients at the heart of everything we do. This award is a testament to the hard work and dedication of our entire team, who continually strive to innovate and elevate the trading experience for our clients.”

The leadership prioritises technology and responsiveness to user feedback and intends to leverage this momentum to further refine their product offering to remain competitive in the UK and global trading landscape.

Trust, safety, and global footprint

OANDA’s performance is equally matched by public sentiment, as is clearly demonstrated by OANDA Europe Limited’s impressive 4.8-star rating on Trustpilot.

This rating, based on daily active users’ experiences, underscores the company’s reputation for customer satisfaction and strict regulatory compliance.

In the United Kingdom, OANDA is fully authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, and is highly regulated in other key markets such as Singapore and New York.

This extensive oversight leaves a global footprint of trust and safety, assuring traders and partners of a well-established brokerage committed to their mutual success.

About OANDA

Since its founding in 1996, OANDA has become a global leader in online trading, offering multi-asset trading, analytics, and exchange rate services to retail and corporate clients.

OANDA helped shape web-based currency trading and has maintained a trusted platform for forex CFD trading and other derivatives of global market indices, commodities, precious metals, cryptoassets, equities, and treasuries.

The broker has regulated entities across the world, notably in Toronto, London, Warsaw, Tokyo, Sydney, New York, and Singapore.

OANDA remains dedicated to improving its award-winning platform to deliver the best online trading experience to clients.

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Gold and Bitcoin (BTC) have rallied as investors increasingly embrace the so-called debasement trade, while the US dollar has weakened.

The timing has drawn attention to the US Treasury’s decision to increase its long-term debt buybacks.

But according to Alexander Lis, chief investment officer at SDV, investors risk confusing two very different things: a Treasury operation that changes the composition of government debt and genuine monetary easing by the Federal Reserve.

Speaking on the latest episode of Zero Sum, Lis explained why the Treasury’s debt buybacks are not quantitative easing (QE), why they can still influence financial markets, and what investors should watch next as the Federal Reserve and Treasury navigate rates, inflation and the dollar.

The Treasury buyback is not QE

The term “debasement” has become increasingly popular among investors who believe governments have an incentive to reduce the real burden of their debt by allowing the currency to lose value.

“The debasement narrative is so popular nowadays because there is a notion that it is beneficial for the US government to debase the huge debt that they have.”

Lis argued that the underlying concept is broader than any single Treasury announcement.

When the amount of money in the financial system grows faster than nominal GDP, some assets can rise in value as they reflect that expansion.

But he rejected the idea that the Treasury’s latest buyback should automatically be treated as QE.

The key issue is how the operation is funded. According to Lis, the Treasury can finance the buybacks by issuing shorter-term bills while buying longer-term securities.

In that case, the government is effectively changing the maturity profile of its debt rather than creating new money.

That makes the operation fundamentally different from a Federal Reserve asset-purchase program.

A change in Treasury debt composition can still push investors toward risk

The fact that a Treasury buyback is not QE does not mean it has no market consequences.

Lis argued that shifting away from longer-duration securities can reduce volatility in the fixed-income market.

That matters because government bonds are widely used as collateral across financial markets.

A reduction in volatility could increase the amount of usable collateral and make it easier for capital to move through the financial system.

Lis argues that this can create a broader risk-on effect without requiring the central bank to print money.

“Risk assets would go up, dollar would go down, inflation [is] already on higher levels.”

That helps explain why markets can react positively to an operation that does not itself inject fresh liquidity.

Bitcoin and gold may be responding to positioning as much as fundamentals

The recent rally in Bitcoin and gold is therefore not necessarily proof that markets have correctly identified a new era of monetary debasement.

Lis pointed out that both assets had been trading from relatively depressed levels, with investor positioning already weak.

“So probably there were a lot of shorts.”

An unexpected move can force those positions to unwind, amplifying a rally that might initially have little to do with long-term fundamentals.

That is particularly important for crypto, which Lis sees as a higher-beta expression of the debasement trade.

In other words, if the debasement thesis strengthens, Bitcoin could outperform gold.

“Crypto just has higher beta to debasement than gold does.”

But the reverse is also true: if the narrative fades, crypto could suffer substantially more.

The next major test may be the Federal Reserve, not the Treasury

Lis does not expect the start of the Treasury buybacks to be the next major market-moving event.

The announcement itself has already given investors time to price the move in.

Instead, he is watching the next Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement and, more immediately, the Federal Reserve’s September meeting.

The August inflation report could prove particularly important.

“If we have a super hot print, we are definitely going to get a hike, in my opinion.”

His base case, however, is more moderate. With July inflation data relatively soft, Lis expects August readings to be broadly neutral.

Under that scenario, he does not expect the Fed to raise rates. That puts monetary policy back at the centre of the debasement debate.

Investors should watch the dollar as closely as they watch gold and Bitcoin

One of Lis’s central arguments is that policymakers cannot simultaneously control short-term rates, long-term yields and the dollar without trade-offs.

Attempts to suppress long-term yields could therefore produce consequences elsewhere in the system.

Lis does not believe the United States is destined to follow Japan’s path of successfully suppressing long-term yields for an extended period.

“I do not buy the idea of the US as the next Japan.”

For investors, that leaves a more complicated picture than the simple “money printing” narrative suggests.

Gold and Bitcoin may benefit from expectations of currency weakness, but a sustained debasement trade would also have implications for equities, bonds, inflation and the dollar.

Lis’s own market positioning reflects that nuance.

He is bullish on relatively defensive, “boring” stocks such as Netflix, bearish on gold because he does not currently buy the debasement thesis, and views the long-duration Treasury ETF TLT as his wildcard.

The broader message is that investors should look past the headline and focus on the structure underneath it.

A Treasury buyback may not be QE, but changes in duration, volatility, collateral, and expectations for Federal Reserve policy can still reshape the risk landscape.

Watch the full episode of Zero Sum for the complete discussion with Alexander Lis on debasement, Treasury debt, crypto, gold, and the outlook for US monetary policy.

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