Updated 9 November 2026, 07:00 GMT. Spot gold is trading near $4,112 an ounce on Monday, up about $42 or 1.03 percent on the day (FXEmpire, 06:46 GMT), and December Comex futures are at about $4,119.60 (Yahoo Finance, 06:40 GMT). Falling oil prices have eased inflation worries after President Trump said new attacks on Iran were “highly unlikely” while talks progress (Reuters). Verdict: gold has recovered Friday’s jobs-report loss, but Tuesday’s October CPI report decides whether the rebound lasts. Reference levels: $4,000 below, $4,150 above.
Key facts
- Monday price: spot gold about $4,112.67 at 06:46 GMT, up 1.03 percent (FXEmpire). Reuters had it higher earlier, at $4,123.46 by 04:28 GMT, up 1.4 percent. Trading Economics showed $4,110.38 on 9 November.
- Friday’s close: Kitco’s New York spot close was $4,070.10, down 0.42 percent (via Guardian Gold). Closing figures vary with each provider’s cut-off time, and our Saturday gold page used a $4,045 close from Rio Times. December futures settled at $4,074.90 (Yahoo Finance).
- Last week: bullion gained about 5 percent (Reuters), after a one-year low near $3,870 on 30 October (FXEmpire; Guardian Gold).
- The Fed: CME FedWatch showed an 81 percent chance of a December rate hike, up from 71 percent (Reuters, 9 November).
- Record: gold is about 26.7 percent below its all-time high of $5,608.35, reached in January (Trading Economics).
- Next: US October CPI on Tuesday 10 November at 8:30 a.m. ET (13:30 GMT), then PPI on Friday 13 November.
Why gold is up on Monday
The move starts with oil. Brent fell after Trump said he was highly unlikely to order new attacks on Iran while talks make progress, and our Monday Brent page has the detail. Cheaper oil lowers one source of inflation pressure, which matters to gold because the market now expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates next month.
“Trump’s more conciliatory tone toward Iran is helping keep a lid on oil prices, which in turn eases some of the inflationary pressure,” Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, told Reuters. A softer dollar added support on Monday (Reuters).
The rebound comes one trading day after the US reported 165,000 new jobs for October against about 65,000 expected, which lifted rate hike odds and pushed gold down on Friday. Our desk covered that release in US Economy Adds 165,000 Jobs as December Fed Rate Hike Odds Rise.
Tuesday’s CPI report will look different
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will not publish 12-month changes for October for indexes where October 2025 data are missing, because prices could not be collected during the 2025 government shutdown (BLS, via StockTitan). Traders will focus on the monthly numbers instead.
RBC Economics expects headline and core CPI to have risen 0.3 percent in October. The Cleveland Fed’s nowcast, as of 6 November, was 0.24 percent overall and 0.21 percent core (StockTitan). September’s readings were 0.6 percent headline and 0.3 percent core, with the last published yearly rate at 3.7 percent.
Waterer’s warning covers the downside for gold: “Any hot readings would likely firm the dollar and lift the odds of a December rate hike, which would quickly put gold back on the defensive.”
Levels to watch
FXEmpire’s Muhammad Umair named $4,150 as the level to clear on Monday, with a move above it opening the way towards about $4,400. On the downside, FOREX.com’s Fawad Razaqzada called $4,000 critical and described CPI as “the trigger behind the next big move,” while Blue Line Futures’ Phillip Streible expects a December hike and sees a possible drop below $4,000 as a “final shakeout” (both via Guardian Gold). Thursday’s high of $4,134.83 is the nearest reference between today’s price and $4,150. Goldman Sachs cut its end-2026 forecast to $4,150 from $4,650 last week (Reuters).
Gold this week: bull, base and bear
| Scenario | Gold | What has to happen | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $4,000 | October CPI comes in hot, December hike odds rise above 81 percent and the dollar strengthens. | The level named as critical by Razaqzada and Streible; about 2.7 percent below $4,112.67. |
| Base | $4,070-$4,135 | CPI is close to the 0.3 percent forecast and hike odds stay near current levels. | Between Friday’s Kitco close ($4,070.10) and Thursday’s high ($4,134.83). |
| Bull | $4,150 | CPI is soft, hike odds fall and oil stays lower. | FXEmpire’s breakout level and Goldman Sachs’ end-2026 forecast; about 0.9 percent above $4,112.67. |
The bear case sits below the current price. These are reference levels measured from the 06:46 GMT spot quote, not forecasts.
What to watch this week
- Tuesday 10 November, 13:30 GMT: US October CPI, monthly figures only for the main indexes.
- FedWatch: whether December hike odds move away from 81 percent after the report.
- Iran talks: Trump’s comment depends on progress, so a setback could lift oil and revive inflation worries.
- Friday 13 November: US October PPI.
- Silver: it is rising faster than gold on Monday. See our Monday silver page.
Quick take: Gold is near $4,112 on Monday, up about 1 percent as lower oil prices ease inflation concerns. The market still prices an 81 percent chance of a December rate hike. Tuesday’s CPI report sets the next move: a return to $4,000 if inflation runs hot, a test of $4,150 if it is soft.
FAQ
What is the gold price today?
Spot gold was about $4,112.67 an ounce at 06:46 GMT on Monday 9 November, up 1.03 percent (FXEmpire). December futures were near $4,119.60 at 06:40 GMT (Yahoo Finance).
Why is gold up today?
Oil fell after President Trump said new attacks on Iran were highly unlikely while talks progress, which eased inflation worries. A softer dollar also helped (Reuters).
When is the next CPI report?
The October CPI report is due on Tuesday 10 November 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET (13:30 GMT).
Why will the October CPI report have no yearly rate?
Prices were not collected in October 2025 during the government shutdown, so the BLS will not publish 12-month changes for indexes where that data is missing (BLS, via StockTitan).
What are the odds of a December Fed rate hike?
CME FedWatch showed an 81 percent chance on Monday, up from 71 percent before the jobs report (Reuters).
What are the key gold levels this week?
$4,000 is the main support named by analysts. Above the current price, watch Thursday’s $4,134.83 high and $4,150 (FXEmpire).
Sources: FXEmpire, 9 November (spot price, 12-month range, Muhammad Umair’s levels); Reuters via Business Recorder, 9 November (04:28 GMT spot and futures, Tim Waterer’s comments, FedWatch odds, weekly gain); Yahoo Finance, 9 November (December futures and prior settlement); Trading Economics, 9 November (spot price, record high); Guardian Gold, 9 November (Kitco close, Razaqzada and Streible comments); StockTitan, 6 November (BLS note, RBC and Cleveland Fed forecasts); Reuters via Discovery Alert and Business Recorder, 5-6 November (Thursday high, Goldman forecast).
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Commodity prices are volatile. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.
