AbbVie(ABBV) reports second-quarter results on Friday, July 31, and the mood around the stock has changed.
A few months ago, investors were restless. The two drugs carrying the company were doing fine, but everyone already knew that, and the market wanted a new reason to invest.
Goldman Sachs went back through the numbers ahead of the report, and its call is worth a close look for anyone holding the stock or thinking about buying in.
The bank is not telling clients to pile in. It is pointing to a handful of specific signals that could decide which way the stock moves after earnings.
What Goldman Sachs is telling AbbVie investors before July 31
Goldman kept its Neutral rating and a 12-month price target of $244, according to its July 21 earnings preview.
That target sits below where the stock trades now. ABBV closed around $260 on July 27, up about 14% year to date and up close to 3% over the prior five days, Google Finance data showed.
Related: Jim Cramer crowns one surging sector the hottest in the market
So the bank sees a stock that has already run. Goldman expects AbbVie to beat both revenue and earnings expectations a bit, with second-quarter revenue landing near $17 billion.
The point Goldman keeps circling back to is that AbbVie’s case has quietly moved on from its two biggest sellers.
Why the AbbVie growth story shifted away from Skyrizi and Rinvoq
For years, the AbbVie question was simple: can Skyrizi and Rinvoq replace Humira, the mega-blockbuster losing patent protection?
That answer is now clear. Skyrizi and Rinvoq combined already sell more per year than Humira ever did at its peak, The Motley Fool reported.
Goldman’s language captures the shift. It says investors had been searching for a new narrative once the strength of those two drugs was fully understood.
In plain terms: The good news was already priced in, so the market needed a fresh catalyst to push the stock higher.
That catalyst arrived in June.
How the Apogee deal changed sentiment on ABBV stock
On June 22, AbbVie agreed to buyApogee Therapeutics (APGE) for about $10.9 billion, or roughly $10.1 billion after Apogee’s cash, AbbVie’s press release confirmed.
The deal brings in zumilokibart, an experimental antibody for atopic dermatitis, a chronic inflammatory skin condition. Its selling point is convenience, with dosing as infrequent as twice a year.
More Pharma Stocks:
- JPMorgan resets Eli Lilly stock target on drug demand
- UBS strongly resets Lilly stock target
- House committee investigates Merck, AbbVie over China trials
Investors liked it. Goldman noted ABBV shares climbed about 17% after the announcement, well ahead of the roughly 6% move in the broader drug group over the same stretch.
Strip out that sector move, and the bank estimates the deal alone added about $42 billion to AbbVie’s market value.
That reaction tells you what the market wants next from AbbVie: deals and pipeline, not just quarterly sales from drugs everyone already tracks.
The Skyrizi and Rinvoq numbers to watch on earnings day
Even so, the two biggest drugs still set the tone on print day. Goldman expects a split result.
- Skyrizi: A slight beat, driven by prescription volume growth
- Rinvoq: A miss of about 2%, mostly from pricing pressure in the U.S.
Pricing pressure means the company collects less per prescription after rebates and discounts, even when more patients use the drug.
The bank sees U.S. Rinvoq sales landing 4% to 5% below Wall Street‘s estimate because of that pricing pressure.
For readers, watch whether volume growth is strong enough to offset weaker pricing. That balance has decided plenty of pharma earnings reactions this year.
The smaller AbbVie segments that could surprise
Beyond the headline drugs, Goldman flagged a few spots where the direction is turning.
- Venclexta: The blood-cancer drug is seeing prescription growth accelerating to about 30% year over year
- Aesthetics: After a long slump, the company struck a more upbeat tone, citing modest Botox growth and early signs of recovery in facial fillers
- Neuroscience: Results are expected to come in roughly in line with expectations
None of these moves the stock on its own. Together, they support the idea that more of AbbVie’s portfolio is contributing to the company’s growth, rather than its two largest drugs alone.
What still has to go right for AbbVie stock
Goldman stayed Neutral for a reason. A stock trading above the bank’s target has less room for error.
Here is what has to happen for the bullish thesis to hold up:
- Skyrizi and Rinvoq keep growing volume fast enough to absorb pricing cuts.
- The Apogee pipeline delivers in late-stage trials, with key data not due until around 2028.
- Aesthetics recovery turns from early signs into real revenue.
- AbbVie keeps finding deals that extend its runway.
Each carries risk. Goldman listed weaker performance from the key growth drugs, a deeper aesthetics slump, and outside pressures like tariffs and FDA decisions as the main threats.
There is also a policy overhang. A House committee asked AbbVie and four other drugmakers in early July to detail their clinical trial practices in China.
How AbbVie stock stacks up against the market in 2026
A quick comparison shows why sentiment has warmed. AbbVie’s total return has run ahead of the S&P 500 across every recent window, Yahoo Finance data showed.
|
Period |
ABBV total return |
S&P 500 |
|
Year to date |
16.19% |
8.28% |
|
1 year |
40.13% |
16.48% |
That outperformance is the backdrop for Friday. The stock has already delivered, which raises the bar for the report to keep the run going.
The bottom line for AbbVie investors
Goldman isn’t calling AbbVie a sell, but it isn’t calling it a strong buy either.
The bank sees a company that fixed its biggest worry, replacing Humira, and is now judged on whether its next act can match the hype.
The Apogee deal reset the mood. The July 31 report will test whether the fundamentals back it up.
Watch three things: whether Skyrizi beats expectations, whether Rinvoq’s pricing drag is as steep as feared, and whether management sounds confident on aesthetics and the pipeline.
If those line up, the recent rally has support. If they don’t, a stock trading above Wall Street’s target has room to fall.
AbbVie’s history of large post-earnings moves, both positive and negative, means Friday is unlikely to be quiet.
Related: Lilly quietly hands Chinese partner its cancer drug
